‘Population of Cardiff to rocket to nearly half-a-million’
Posted on June 14, 2010
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THE population of Cardiff will increase by more than 40% between 2008 and 2033 if current trends continue, according to new projections made by the Assembly Government. Calculations by statisticians suggest that the number of people living in Cardiff will rise over the period from 330,500 to 468,200, while four other council areas, including Carmarthenshire and Swansea, will experience rises of more than 10% between 2008 and 2023. Last night former First Minister Rhodri Morgan described the figures for the Welsh capital as “quite extraordinary”, and said that if the increase came to pass, it would see Cardiff becoming more dominant a force within Wales than at any time in the city’s history.
The future population projections for all 22 local authorities in Wales have been compiled to help the Assembly Government and councils assess the future demand for services like schooling and health provision. A report based on the projections makes it clear that they are based on recent trends in migration, birth and death rates continuing. The calculations do not take into account future policy changes involving immigration controls and planning that may influence population totals. Between mid-2008 and mid-2023, the report projects most local authorities in Wales will experience an increase in their overall population. Four council areas in addition to Cardiff – Denbighshire, Carmarthenshire, Swansea and the Vale of Glamorgan – are projected to see increases of 10% within that 15-year period.
On the increase projected for the Welsh capital, the report says: “This is a reflection of the population changes in Cardiff in recent years. This projected population increase is mainly due to a net migration of 2,400 people into Cardiff in each year of the projection period. Cardiff is also projected to see around 2,000 more births than deaths in 2008/09, and this is set to increase to 3,500 more births than deaths by 2022/23, mainly due to rising birth levels as a result of a projected increase in the number of females of fertility age.”
More detailed figures show that the net migration increase to Cardiff is entirely attributable to immigrants from overseas rather than from other local authority areas in the UK, where a slight negative migration trend is projected.
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