A European Union of 490 million

On 1 January 2007, the European Union welcomed two new accession countries as members, expanding the EU 25 to 27 member states and raising EU population by nearly 30 million overnight to 490 million as Bulgaria and Romania joined. This followed the accession of 10 countries (Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Slovenia and Slovakia) on 1 May 2004, which had added to 3,154,000 sq. km. of land to the EU15 and reduced overall EU population density.

The population of the EU25 member states is expected to reach 470.1 million, excluding the addition of Bulgaria and Romania, on 1 January 2025. It will then begin to decline to more environmentally sustainable levels, reducing both Europe's demand for non-renewable resources and its environmental impacts on the rest of the world - if these are not increased by other factors. By 2050, according to the Eurostat 2004-based Principal Projection, total EU25 population will decrease to 449.8 million - seven million fewer people than today. See Charts 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3 below.

As Europe's population ages, however, the number of those of working age (15-64) would become smaller in relation to those of 'non-working' age. The 2005 EU25 projection indicates a total dependency ratio (elderly dependants of 65 and over plus young dependants under 15) of three inactive persons for every four of working age in 2050. If its life expectancy assumptions prove correct, people will have to work longer to support themselves in old age. Population is expected to peak at different times, with the UK among those countries with the greatest growth to come and the latest peak (about 2040). But these further rises to unsustainable peak levels can be avoided if the EU and its separate constituent member states are allowed to formulate and put into action population policies.

Migration is the main driver of current population growth in Europe: provisional estimates showed that in 2003 the population of the EU15 grew by 1,276,000 (0.34%), of which 0.26% (more than three-quarters) was due to inward migration and 0.08% due to natural increase. Live births were expected to grow from 3.99 million in 2002 to 4.03 million in 2003, and deaths to increase from 3.68 million in 2002 to 3.74 in 2003, giving natural increase of 294,000, down from 309,000 in 2002. Net inward migration was expected to show a decrease from 1,260,000 in 2002 to 983,000 in 2003. For more information see First demographic estimates for 2003 (Eurostat.) For UK figures see UK Population figures 1750-2005

EU population policy appears to favour continued growth. In some countries, such as Italy, the approach to declining birth rates has been to offer financial benefits to encourage mothers to have more babies. Alongside this, the EU continues to favour excess inward migration, in the belief that this will solve problems created by ageing populations, despite unemployment reaching record highs in Germany and France in 2004. Unless the UK takes very firm independent measures, it is likely to continue to receive the largest inflows - in 2003 the UK received 10.5% of migrants into the EU, and together with Germany, Italy and Spain received 70% of the net inflow. EU Justice Minister Frattini was expected to announce a new economic policy on economic migration into the EU before the end of 2005 - suggesting fast-track immigration and a US-style 'green card' system. News and policy positions can be seen at the EU Euractiv website.

Climate change in Europe

The current EU 25 population is too high for long-term sustainability by all OPT's three current criteria: (1) carbon dioxide emissions limits; (2) resource demand and impact on the environment at current lifestyles; and (3) resource demand and impact on the environment at a 'modest European lifestyle'; all criteria at today's levels of technology and assuming a need to reduce Europe's environmental impact on the rest of the world to sustainable levels. The latter two criteria reflect the long-term need to live mainly from renewable resources in the post-fossil fuel age which will be under way by 2050. For analysis of the overall environmental impact of Europeans see WWF's Europe 2005 - The Ecological Footprint.

Earth is warming at a rate of nearly 0.2^oC per decade and Europe is warming faster than the global average. The temperature in Europe has risen by an average 0.95^oC in the last 100 years and is projected to climb by a further 2.0 - 6.3 ^o this century as greenhouse gas emissions continue to build up. Yet Austria, Belgium, Italy, Ireland and Spain, according to an EU Climate change progress report published by the European Commission on 27 October 2006, will not be able to meet even the modest emissions targets set by the Kyoto Protocol (an 8% reduction from base year levels - normally 1990 - by 2008-12). The EU25 is expected to achieve only an overall reduction of -4.5% in greenhouse gases by 2010 with existing measures,and -10.8% with additional measures, Kyoto mechanisms and carbon sinks. The Kyoto targets are now considered to be wholly inadequate, and while there are likely to be some short term benefits from climate change, particularly in northern Europe, the long-term impact scenarios, some of which are already under way, are of great concern. The economic losses to Europe from extreme weather events doubled in the 20 years to 2004 to about US$11 billion a year. See reports from the European Environment Agency [EEA, Releases 15 July and 18 August 2004] See also Climate change .

Europe's higher than average temperature rise may in part be due to its population density, which is higher than other regions such as the USA. Although Europeans have lower per capita impacts on the environment than inhabitants of the USA, Europe has more people in relation to its land surface area, and therefore in relation to the area of atmosphere directly above it. High density population (greater urbanisation) concentrates environmental impacts, and if caused by growing population, for example, leads to the covering of more open land with concrete and asphalt, which raises atmospheric temperatures and exacerbates flood risk. Higher temperatures in turn lead to more frequent drought, water shortages and extreme weather events which cause damage to the ecological resources needed to sustain Europe's population into the future.

Set against these environmental challenges, the ageing of Europe's population can be seen in perspective. Life expectancy has doubled in western Europe over the last 200 years and the ratio of dependants to the workforce has been much higher in the past. Yet neither trend has brought economic collapse - the last two centuries were a period of rising prosperity. See Ageing.

The EU 25 economies may need structural reform, existing workforces may need new skills training, working age may have to be extended, populations need to become healthier, and some demographic imbalances may need to be resolved; but in OPT's view further population growth should be not be encouraged and numbers should be stabilised and gradually reduced, particularly in very densely populated countries such as the UK.

UK population growth in the context of the EU

Non-EU and intra-EU legal migration have been the main contributors to recent UK population growth, and, if allowed to continue, are projected to account for more than 80 per cent of future population growth [Government Actuary's Department]. In August 2004 the new EU Justice and Home Affairs Commissioner Rocco Buttiglione clearly identified the flow of economic migrants into the EU as a problem and a "timebomb", saying that member states should work together more closely to cut the numbers while increasing aid to developing countries.

In mid-2005, after terrorist bombings in London, there were signs of a move to stricter internal and external EU border controls. The proposed EU Constitution, however, rejected by France and the Netherlands in 2005, abolishes the right of national veto in the areas of asylum and immigration, which would leave the UK with few powers to control the numbers of people entering and settling in the UK from within the EU, and therefore little control over its overall population size. Many powers have already been lost to the control of the EU or international law.

Until EU member states clarify their policies on overall EU and individual national population levels and flows, the overwhelming majority of people who believe that the UK is already overpopulated may have little choice but to press for changes to recent EU directives which will further liberalise the rights of EU citizens to work freely and settle anywhere within the EU 27. See also information on Fertility and Migration .

Population density in Europe

Europe's population density continues to grow, with the small island state of Malta the most densely populated of all. Of the large member states, excluding Malta, the most crowded is the Netherlands, with 393 people per square kilometre in 2005, followed by Belgium with 341 and the UK with 248. France, with a similar population size to that of the UK but more than double the land area, has a population density of 111, while some Baltic and Eastern European countries have lower densities than they did 20 years before - partly because of lower birth rates, and recently because of increasing movement of European populations from East to West. Population density in the crowded UK is being increased by this movement, and is projected by the ONS to grow from 250 people per square kilometre in 2006 to 293 in 2031, with England's density rising from 390 to 464 people per square kilometre in 2031.