A European Union of 495 million

On 1 January 2007, the European Union welcomed two new accession countries as members, expanding the EU 25 to 27 member states and raising EU population to 495 million after Bulgaria and Romania joined. This followed the accession of 10 countries (Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Slovenia and Slovakia) on 1 May 2004, which had added to 3,154,000 sq. km. of land to the EU15 and reduced overall EU population density.

The population of the EU27 member states is expected to peak at 496.5 million between 2021 and 2023, according to projections published in the Eurostat Statistical Yearboook 2008. It will then decrease to 472 million by 2050 - 13 million fewer people than today. This decline will take Europe's population to more environmentally sustainable levels, reducing both EU demand for non-renewable resources and its environmental impacts on the rest of the world - if these are not increased by other factors. See Charts 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3 below for projections based on 2004 Eurostat data.

Birth rates have fallen across Europe and by 2006 no EU state had a total fertility rate (TFR or average expected family size) above the 2.1 children needed to replace two parents. Life expectancy is increasing - to 74.6 years for men born in 2003 and 80.8 years for women. Migration is therefore the main driver of population growth in the EU, with net inward flows of 1.5-2 million a year since 2002, and is the key factor in high-population growth countries such as the UK - see UK Population figures 1750-2008.

The challenge of coping with an ageing population still dominates Europe's attitude to population policy, because as Europe's population ages the number of those of working age (defined as 15-64) will become smaller in relation to those of 'non-working' age who are usually referred to as economic "dependants". In 2006, some 16% of the EU27's population were aged less than 15, people of working age accounted for 67.2%, and those aged 65 or more for 16.7%. By 2050, however, the ratio of older dependants to people of working age will rise, and 11.2% of Europe's inhabitants are expected to be 80 years old or more.

In March 2005 the European Commission released its Green Paper Confronting demographic change: a new solidarity between the generations which raised the question "How can the decline in population be reversed?" However, with public and political opinion turning against mass inward migration in many member states, population policy has become less focused on growing EU population indefinitely to improve dependency ratios and more focused on the need for unemployed citizens, including older people, to re-enter the workforce.

Over the last decade the populations of Ireland, Spain, France, Italy and the UK have grown rapidly, while those of Eastern European countries with low birth rates and net emigration have decreased: latest projections show that Bulgaria and Romania, both with total fertility rates below 1.5, are likely to lose more than a fifth of their populations by 2050 if current trends continue. In some countries, such as Italy, the approach to declining birth rates has been to offer financial benefits to encourage mothers to have more babies. Alongside this, the EU continues to favour continuing net inward migration, in the belief that this will solve problems created by ageing populations, despite unemployment reaching record highs in 2008, and despite mounting evidence that the EU's ability to support population growth will be negatively affected by climate change developments and increasing natural resource shortages. Changes in emissions and sustainable energy policies have produced negligible results, and in OPT's view EU environment policies cannot succeed unless they include green population policies.

Climate change in Europe

The current EU 27 population is too high for long-term sustainability by all OPT's three current criteria: (1) carbon dioxide emissions limits; (2) resource demand and impact on the environment at current lifestyles; and (3) resource demand and impact on the environment at a 'modest European lifestyle'; all criteria at today's levels of technology and assuming a need to reduce Europe's environmental impact on the rest of the world to sustainable levels. The latter two criteria reflect the long-term need to live mainly from renewable resources in the post-fossil fuel age which will be under way by 2050. For analysis of the overall environmental impact of Europeans see Optimum Populations and WWF's Europe 2005 - The Ecological Footprint.

Earth is warming at a rate of nearly 0.2^oC per decade and Europe is warming faster than the global average. The temperature in Europe has risen by an average 0.95^oC in the last 100 years and is projected to climb by a further 2.0 - 6.3 ^o this century as greenhouse gas emissions continue to build up. Yet Austria, Belgium, Italy, Ireland and Spain, according to an EU Climate change progress report published by the European Commission on 27 October 2006, will not be able to meet even the modest emissions targets set by the Kyoto Protocol (an 8% reduction from base year levels - normally 1990 - by 2008-12). The EU25 is expected to achieve only an overall reduction of -4.5% in greenhouse gases by 2010 with existing measures,and -10.8% with additional measures, Kyoto mechanisms and carbon sinks. The Kyoto targets are now considered to be wholly inadequate, and while there are likely to be some short term benefits from climate change, particularly in northern Europe, the long-term impact scenarios, some of which are already under way, are of great concern. The economic losses to Europe from extreme weather events doubled in the 20 years to 2004 to about US$11 billion a year. See reports from the European Environment Agency [EEA, Releases 15 July and 18 August 2004] See also Climate change .

Europe's higher than average temperature rise may in part be due to its population density, which is higher than in other regions such as the USA. Although Europeans have lower per capita impacts on the environment than inhabitants of the USA, Europe has more people in relation to its land surface area, and therefore in relation to the area of atmosphere directly above it. High density population (greater urbanisation) concentrates environmental impacts, and if caused by growing population, for example, leads to the covering of more open land with concrete and asphalt, which raises atmospheric temperatures and exacerbates flood risk. Higher temperatures in turn lead to more frequent drought, water shortages and extreme weather events which cause damage to the ecological resources needed to sustain Europe's population into the future.

Set against these environmental challenges, the ageing of any population can be seen in perspective. Life expectancy has doubled in western Europe over the last 200 years and the ratio of dependants to the workforce has been much higher in the past. Yet neither trend has brought economic collapse - the last two centuries were a period of rising prosperity.

The EU 27 economies may need structural reform, existing workforces may need new skills training, working age may have to be extended, populations need to become healthier, and some demographic imbalances may need to be resolved; but evidence of rapid environmental degradation suggests that further population growth should be not be encouraged and that numbers should be stabilised and gradually reduced, particularly in very densely populated countries such as the UK.

UK population growth in the context of the EU

In mid-2005, after terrorist bombings in London, there were signs of a move to stricter internal and external EU border controls, and controls have been further strengthened in 2007-2008. The proposed EU Constitution, however, rejected by France and the Netherlands in 2005, was to abolish the right of national veto in the areas of asylum and immigration, which would leave the UK with few powers to control the numbers of people entering and settling in the UK from within the EU, and therefore little control over its overall population size. Many powers have already been lost to the control of the EU or international law.

Until EU member states clarify their policies on overall EU and individual national population levels and flows, the overwhelming majority of people who believe that the UK is already overpopulated may have little choice but to press for changes to recent EU directives which will further liberalise the rights of EU citizens to work freely and settle anywhere within the EU 27. See also information on Fertility and Migration .

Population density in Europe

Europe's population density continues to grow, with the small island state of Malta the most densely populated of all. Of the large member states, excluding Malta, the most crowded is the Netherlands, with 393 people per square kilometre in 2005, followed by Belgium with 341 and the UK with 248. France, with a similar population size to that of the UK but more than double the land area, has a population density of 111, while some Baltic and Eastern European countries have lower densities than they did 20 years before - partly because of lower birth rates, and recently because of increasing movement of European populations from East to West. Population density in the crowded UK is being increased by this movement, and is projected by the ONS to grow from 250 people per square kilometre in 2006 to 293 in 2031, with England's density rising from 390 to 464 people per square kilometre in 2031.