News: New 2006-based population projections released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 23 October 2007 reveal expected population growth of a staggering 17 million (more than two Londons) to 77.2 million in 2050. This was followed on 15 November by figures for migration in 2006. See what this means for our environment , and how different this would have been if the government had put OPT's recommended population policy in place OPT Population policy projections.

1.1 ENVIRONMENTALLY UNSUSTAINABLE IMMIGRATION

The UK has a history of significant migration flows, both immigration and emigration, but today's level of inward migration is unlike any witnessed in the last 100 years. A combination of factors, including mass international travel, the globalisation of labour markets, free movement within the European Union, people trafficking, government policy, and the incorporation into UK law of international human rights law, have combined to raise net inward flows to record levels, with environmental consequences that have yet to be properly addressed. Under the current government's migration policy, both gross and net inward migration continue at very high levels, and in spite of legislation to control the flow, there is no sign that this trend will significantly reverse. Figures for the years 1971-2006 below show that half of all net inward migration since 1971 has occurred in the last decade; and between 2001 and 2005, according to the ONS (Social Trends 37) , net migration accounted for 66% of overall population change. In the 1950s net natural change accounted for 98% of population change and net migration for only 2%.

An immigrant is defined as someone who enters a country intending to stay for more than a year, and net migration is the number of immigrants minus the number of emigrants, or vice versa. Net inward migration together with its impact on natural increase, is the main cause of UK population growth now running at nearly 350,000 a year - adding to the UK a city larger than Cardiff - a capital city - every year. New 2006-based population projections released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 23 October 2007 reveal expected population growth of nearly 17 million (more than two Londons) to 77.2 million in 2050, with net inward migration estimated at 190,000 a year for most of that period. This projection suggested substantially higher growth than the ones published in 2004 and 2003 - when assumed future net inward migration was 130,000 a year. The spiralling rate of inward migration has consistently been underestimated, and directly accounted for more than two-thirds of record population growth of 393,000 in 2005,

Indirectly, migration also contributes to population growth. Partly due to the younger age profile of immigrants, and partly due to cultural differences in family size, it has tended to raise the birth rate, and on 7 June 2007 the ONS revealed that in the year to mid-2006, 21.9% of all births in England and Wales were to mothers born overseas - confirming the cumulative impact of large-scale immigration. In 1993 births to migrant mothers were less than 10% of the total.

With net legal immigration projected to continue at between 190,000 and 256,000 a year between 2007 and 2017, estimates of population growth have been substantially revised. Unless action is taken to bring the numbers down, or the growing number of emigrants increases to bring inward and outward flows into balance, UK population is forecast to grow by another 10 million by 2030. With zero effect net migration (equivalent to natural change only, with zero migration or age-balanced inward and outward flows), however, UK population would peak at 64 million in 2036, then gradually decrease. See OPT Population policy projections.

Total inward migration flows into the UK, have been exacerbated by free movement of labour within the European Union and the UK's 'open-door' policy to the 10 accession countries which joined the EU in May 2004 and January 2007. This inward flow has risen to levels never previously experienced and which cannot continue, in OPT's view, for the sake of all those now living in the UK, including generations of immigrants and refugees already accepted as Britons. For information on international refugees, see United Nations High Commission for Refugees.

In the years 1999-2003, asylum seekers made up a growing and large proportion of total immigration numbers, and an estimated 80% of these proved not to be genuine asylum seekers. The UK has a history of receiving and assimilating immigrants, especially refugees, of which it is rightly proud. The suffering endured by genuine refugees cannot be underestimated, and they can and should be welcomed. By 2007, government measures had reduced the number of asylum seekers to 23,520 a year - less than a third of the peak level in 2002, and there may be scope to increase this number in future if the number of economic migrants is reduced. However, the EU is unlikely to be able to take in a possible 50 million or more environmental refugees expected to be displaced by climate change - the solutions to this are immediate worldwide action to curb global warming and reverse population growth. Europe is already experiencing its own environmental stresses caused by climate change and is overshooting its capacity to regenerate natural resources.

Every country needs to consider its future. A range of environmental and economic factors, including climate change requirements and impacts, energy security and degraded and diminishing natural resources, make it unlikely that the UK will in future be able to support its current numbers. If the 2005-2006 rate of population increase of 0.6% were allowed to continue, UK population would reach 100 million before the end of this century, going on to reach 200 million and more. OPT maintains that it would be better for the UK, and for other countries, to consider their own environmentally sustainable levels of population, and reverse their population growth accordingly alongside other environmental policies. See UK Population figures and Sustainable numbers.

1.2 GOVERNMENT MIGRATION POLICY

The devastating environmental consequences of continuous UK population growth are becoming clear. If it continues, the effects will become worse - continued population growth at the 2000-2006 rate would require the building of some eight million extra homes by 2050. But no government department appears to recognise the environmental impacts of continuous population growth, or the significance of its migration component - now projected to account for more than 80% of future population growth when natural increase (births minus deaths) among migrants is added to annual direct migrant inflows. See Migration and population growth, [GAD, 2004]. The Home Office (the government department responsible for controlling migration levels), states that one of its seven aims is "to regulate entry to and settlement in the United Kingdom effectively in the interests of sustainable growth and social inclusion", but it does not define environmentally sustainable growth. See Home Office statement of purpose and aims.

UK migration policy began to change after the May 2005 General Election: new controls are being introduced, including a points-based immigration system that will not grant settlement rights to low-skilled workers. On 24 October 2006 it was confirmed that free entry to the UK labour market by Bulgarian and Romanian citizens will not be allowed when they join the EU 25 on 1 January 2007: highly-skilled workers will need work permits and low-skilled workers will only be allowed to join the quotas for agricultural work and food processing jobs, and the limit will be set at 20,000 workers a year. The impact of this measure is likely to be small, however. Net migration inflows, along with permanent settlement, continue to rise, driving up population growth - see UK Population figures and table 1.2 below.

In its pre-election Home Office Strategic Plan 2004-08: Confident Communities in a Secure Britain [July 2004], Section 3 (Building strong, cohesive communities) rightly focused on issues of security and cohesion, but made no mention of optimal migration levels in terms of environmental impacts. Neither did Section 4 (Our strategy for managing migration). Home Office consideration of environment policies has so far been limited to adhering to internal Home Office Sustainable Development Indicators* and to reducing the impacts of its own departmental activities (see Home Office Environmental Policy, April 2002). In February 2005 the then Home Secretary Charles Clarke laid out the government's new detailed strategy for migration - see Controlling our borders: Making migration work for Britain [Home Office Immigration and Nationality Directorate]. (* Note: In May 2004 OPT submitted proposals to the parliamentary Environmental Audit Committee on the government's Sustainable Development Strategy, proposing new indicators of national population density for inclusion in the strategy's national sustainable development headline indicators.)

The 2004-5 Home Office IND plans were followed by a consultation document Selective admission: making migration work, whose circulation list did not appear to include any environmental organisations. The Home Office's revised policy of July 2006 Rebuilding confidence in our immigration system emphasised the strengthening of UK borders with tougher checks abroad; fast-track asylum decisions; and better enforcement of compliance with immigration laws. The objective is to "boost Britain's economy by bringing the right skills here from around the world". After nine years of government, during which time annual net inward migration has risen nearly fourfold from 46,800 (1997) to 185,000 (2005), there was still no mention of environmental impacts, numerical limits to migration, nor any hint of a policy to reverse the UK's continuous population growth. A new Border and Immigration Bill is due to be brought before Parliament in the 2006/7 session, however, and in October 2006, OPT was invited for the first time to contribute to stakeholder discussions with the Home Office. For full details of the latest version of the Immigration, Asylum and Nationality Bill, see Home Office Law and Policy: Legislation.

The latest (Mid-2004 based) official UK population projection from the Government Actuary's Department projects even faster population growth than the ones published over the three years before - a difference of more than a million by 2031. (Historically, population projections have tended to overestimate fertility and mortality rates and underestimate migration flows.) This is likely to underestimate once again the scale of inward migration unless government policy is changed - projecting net inflows of 145,000 people a year over the next decade. These population projections are not underpinned by any clearly stated government target to reduce migration or total population size to genuinely sustainable levels. No overpopulated country can viably reduce its population size without tackling the issues of fertility (see Fertility ) and migration - and the health, employability and productivity of its existing workforce (see Ageing and unemployment ).

2.1 Excess immigration exacerbates internal flows

UK population growth is causing widespread local population growth and rising densities, and therefore increasing urbanisation - see Local population densities. International and internal migration are not areas to which equal treatment can be applied. All nation states have borders, and in order to maintain their independence as sovereign states, they impose border controls and laws governing the numbers of people who can enter for the purpose of settlement. In democratic nation states there are usually no legal restrictions on internal movement and settlement - this is considered one of the freedoms that come with citizenship of a democracy. As in other countries, internal migration is a normal and continuous process in Britain for a wide variety of reasons - some people leave rural areas for cities to find jobs and excitement, often southwards from Scotland and the north of England, while others move out to rural areas in search of unspoilt landscapes and tranquillity - but find that less of it remains each year.

By driving up overall population growth and urban development, however, a combination of natural increase and increased immigration has exacerbated internal migration flows in the UK. Between 1981 and 2002 [The State of the Countryside 2004, Countryside Agency, 21 June 2004] the rural population of England grew by 14% (1.7 million), and more than 100,000 people a year are moving from cities to the countryside. Migration from urban to rural areas is currently four times migration from North to South. As cities become overpopulated, citydwellers spill into the suburbs, then have to move into wider commuter belts, then in greater numbers into a dwindling number of of rural areas. In doing so they turn the countryside they value into yet more urban sprawl, as separate settlements expand and merge into one another. See Countryside, housing and development.

Regional imbalances are exaggerated by these population flows, and international migration into London , where already one in four people are foreign born, is likely to cause further pressures. ONS figures released on 17 June 2004, based on the April 2001 census reveal that nearly 9 out of 10 people in England and Wales live in urban areas, and that there are already 31 large settlements with populations of over 200,000 (the amount by which UK population is increasing each year). Four areas have more than one million people, of which the largest is Greater London, with 8.3 million. (Of the 90% living in urban areas in England & Wales, 14.8% reported their ethnicity as non-white and/or non-British: about 7 million people - an indication of the minimum amount of historic population growth attributable to immigration.)

England passed the 50 million population threshold in mid-2004 and has been most affected by international and internal migration. Displacement of London's population to surrounding areas is a key factor behind unrelenting urban expansion into the suburbs and countryside. By 2002, the population of rural England (14.1 million) was increasing by 100,000 a year, and has since risen further. Rejuvenation of rural areas can be brought about by small-scale or temporary exchanges of population - large and permanent influx and settlement are not necessary to achieve diversity or innovation. See Countryside . In Scotland, population began to rise again in 2004 after falling to nearly five million. The population of Wales rose by 0.5% in the year to mid-2004 and has grown by about 5% over the last 20 years, with the growth coming mainly from English incomers.

3. NUMBERS STILL TOO HIGH

UK migration has climbed from a single year of balance in 1993 (net emigration of 1,200 people) to a net inflow of 234,700 in 2005. Far from reversing naturally, and in spite of recent measures to control the illegal component of migration, large inward flows look set to continue, with economic migration estimated at a staggering 600,000 between 1 May 2004 and mid-2006, about 60 times the pre-entry estimate of 5,000 - 13,000 a year made by the Home Office. Student applications for the 2005/6 academic year from countries outside the UK rose 3.8% from 2004/5, with those from (non-UK) Europe up 15% to 26,827 and the sharpest rises coming from new EU accession countries. For full details of the rules for various categories of migrant admissions to the UK see Home Office: Working in the UK . Here are brief summaries:

3.1 Categories of immigrants

Legal immigrants are defined as those who enter the UK with the purpose of staying for more than one year, and who have permission to do so (annual figures are based on the International Passenger Survey). Until 1985 the annual number of legal immigrants into the UK (about 200,000) was nearly balanced by the number of emigrants leaving to settle abroad. Since then, there has been growing surplus immigration.

3.2 Illegal immigration

All non-EEA citizens who travel to the UK need a valid visa to enter and remain legally in the country, and a normal tourist visa usually lasts for only six months: see UK Visas . But because the UK has abandoned embarkation border controls - checking people out as they leave the UK, no-one knows how many people remain in the UK illegally. Illegal immigrants include: non-working students who have completed their courses and breached visa limits; people who have applied to 'bogus' colleges to acquire visas; other visitors who have outstayed their visas, rejected asylum seekers who have not left the UK; and illegal workers using false identity documentation. It is not known how many illegal immigrants are still present in the UK, but in 2005 these were officially estimated at 500,000. A reported 1.8 million 'unexplained' National Insurance numbers suggests a higher figure. [The Guardian, January 2004], Measures taken by the government in 2003-2004 to deter illegal migration have reduced the numbers of those wishing to enter or stay illegally, but have done little to stop population growth, which reached 281,200 in the year to mid-2004 .

3.3 Asylum seekers

In 1982, there were just 4,223 asylum claims in the UK. The figures began to rise in the 1990s as international travel became easier, and rose sharply after the incorporation of international human rights legislation into the UK Human Rights Act in 1998, followed by an increase in international people trafficking. Not until 2003 did applications begin to fall from their peak of 80,130 in 2002 - see Chart 3.3.1 below. By the 2006, applications (excluding dependants) were running at 23,500 a year, with removals at 16,500, leaving 49,295 asylum seekers (including dependants) being supported by the National Asylum Support System while their applications were being processed. In 2003-4, the Immigration and Nationality Directorate (IND) had spent £1.07 billion on the National Asylum Support Service [National Audit Office, 14 July 2005] Permanent settlement rights were modified from 1 April 2003, with Exceptional Leave to Remain being replaced by Humanitarian Protection or Discretionary Leave.

As a component of a population policy aimed at stabilising UK population and allowing gradual decrease, a choice can be made between (a) welcoming more asylum seekers and fewer economic migrants; and (b) maintaining the current level of grants of asylum and settlement rights while reducing the flow of economic migrants. [Note: For statistics on the numbers and distribution of asylum seekers within the EU, see United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.

3.4 Legal immigration: students

There are several categories of legal immigrant, including legitimate students, immigrant workers with bona fide short-term work permits, and genuine asylum seekers whose claims have been accepted. Legal student immigration looks set to continue to rise, mainly because the government has set no limit to legal migration from the EU and because overseas students bring in higher fees for UK universities than British students do. There has been rapid growth in the number of overseas students at UK universities, and the British Council has predicted that the number of overseas students wanting to attend UK universities could more than triple [from about 270,000] to more than 870,000 by 2020 [March 2004]. "The equivalent of 62 universities would be needed to accommodate the influx of students - with additional demand for accommodation," [Phil Willis, Liberal Democrat MP]. Home Office estimates suggest (2005) that up to 5,000 illegal immigrants a year enter the UK by enrolling at universities without intending to study.

Between 1997/8 and 2002/3 alone, the number of non-EU international students at UK universities increased from 117,000 to 185,000 - an almost 60% growth [Professor Ivor Crewe, Universities UK, 15 Sep 2004]. In the 2002/3 academic year there was a 4.3% rise to a total 2.17 million enrolments on higher education courses, with the numbers of non-EU students entering higher education rising by 23% - an increase of about 30,000 to be added to inward migration figures [Higher Education Statistics Agency, 20 Jan 2004]. By 2003/4 there were 213,000 non-EU students and 104,000 students from other EU countries in UK higher education institutions.

These figures do not include enrolments at further education institutions and language schools. In 2003, 319,000 people were given leave to enter the UK as students (for full-time degree courses, daytime study of at least 15 hours a week at recognised institutations, and for full-time courses at fee-paying schools). The effect of student inflows on long-term population growth depends on the extent to which they are able to remain and/or work in the UK, and the extent to which they intermarry with UK citizens and become permanent settlers. There has been a rapid increase in the number of international students being granted extensions to stay in the UK. While in the USA only 2% of foreign students sought extensions to stay in 2001-2003, similar extensions to stay were granted in 2001-2003 by the UK to nearly 100% of students from certain countries and to a total 190,215 overseas students (a 48% increase) in 2003. [Migration Watch, 28 December 2004].

Such expansion of foreign student numbers would increase projected population growth, in OPT's view, to yet more unsustainable levels. No estimate of the environmental and economic costs of such expansion - including greater pressure on land prices, housing and infrastructure, and higher demand for imported energy - has yet been made. The financial benefits would accrue to universities and their employees, but UK students might find themselves squeezed out and the environmental and economic costs of large-scale expansion would have to be met by all UK taxpayers and citizens. While students do not have as great an impact on housing, energy use and environmental degradation as family units do (unless they become permanent settlers by marriage or other means) the impact of such numbers is significant - some universities, for example, are already expanding building development on green belt land. An increase in the number of students taking up citizenship or settlement rights after graduation would cause even greater population growth.

3.5 Legal immigration: citizenships

Citizenship of the UK brings benefits that generations of Britons have worked for and shed blood to protect, yet until recently citizenship has been given away (with few exceptions) as if it were worthless. Migrants need to work in the UK for only four years to become eligible for automatic settlement rights (this has now been extended to five years, with curbs on settlement rights for low-skilled workers). The granting of citizenship and settlement rights has been increasing steadily. In 1997, when the current government came to power, only 37,010 UK citizenships were granted. Some 110,000 immigrants/residents were granted UK citizenship in 2001. In 2002, 115,895 people were granted settlement rights in the UK, 8% more than 2001 [Control of Immigration Statistics, UK 2002, provisional, Home Office August 2003], and the number of citizenships granted in 2003 rose to a record 139,675, with nearly 21,000 arising from asylum, 29,000 from people in work, and nearly 60,000 due to 'family reunion'.

3.6 Legal immigration: work permits

The number of work permit holders and their dependents being granted entry to the UK by the government has also been growing steadily. In 1998, 68,385 immigrant work permit holders and their dependants were granted entry to the UK. This rose to 120,115 in 2002, and rose again to 166,968 (5,980 training and work-based + 7,809 sector-based + 153,179 business and commercial work permits) in 2003, excluding admission of dependants. In 2004, a total 181,432 (4,204 training and work-based + 16,858 sector-based + 160,370 business and commercial work permits) were issued, up 14,464 on 2003 anad more than double the 1998 figure. (These are issued to non-EU citizens, excluding dependents). [Source: Worker Registration Scheme and Work Permit figures published, Home Office, 22 Feb 2005]. By enabling more economic migrants to gain work permits, bring in dependants and extend their stay or remain permanently in the UK, these trends increase the certainty of further population growth.

3.7 The 'perpetual spiral' labour effect of excess immigration

Far from solving labour market requirements, excess immigration appears to have made them worse - by increasing the base population requiring services for which there may already be an inadequate supply of labour. If more people enter than leave, and the inflow is excessive, a perpetual spiral of demand for further immigration can be created. Population growth of about 250,000 a year from 2001-2004 has not solved the 'problems' of skills shortages. It has instead created additional demand for goods and services which employers claim they need to import yet more labour to satisfy. See Economy .

4. BACK-DOOR POPULATION GROWTH

Some visas or work permits are issued for categories of work which encourage cultural exchange (for example student schemes and au pairs). Work permits are also issued to fill gaps in the labour market - particularly in high-skilled areas where it takes years to train a new recruit, and in international companies where diverse linguistic talent or cultural knowledge are vital. If these migrant exchanges are very specifically targeted at skills gaps and the overall migration numbers are (numerically) balanced, they need not increase population pressure on the environment. OPT believes that (zero net immigration effect) quotas should be set on work permit levels and expiry of permission to stay needs to be rigorously enforced. (Sectors can be chosen according to priority skills - the supply of cheap labour for conferencing and corporate entertaining could be curbed, for example, and the supply of construction workers for unpopular, unnecessary and environmentally destructive demolition and mass-housebuilding schemes, many of which are to accommodate expected future migrant flows.) There should also be strict limits on the granting of Indefinite Leave to Remain and UK citizenships, so that this does not have a population growth effect. The government views levels of migration as a matter to be dealt with mainly by market forces, with 'no obvious upper limits' to inward migration. Once granted, however, citizenship is an open-ended commitment, valid for the lifetimes of the original applicant and his or her descendants. Market forces do not effectively measure long-term environmental impacts and economic obligations against short-term benefits to the economy, which are usually not considered for more than a few years ahead. Applying a market forces policy to the granting of citizenships is the equivalent, in economic terms, of matching a 5-year asset against an obligation extending for thousands of years.

5. CONSISTENT AND OVERWHELMING PUBLIC OPPOSITION TO EXCESS IMMIGRATION

Opposition to excessive immigration has been strong and consistent in the UK for several years. Below are the conclusions of just a few recent polls:

OPT's conclusion has always been that the general public's wish to substantially reduce immigration is not generally related to issues of race, but to the impacts of rising population numbers. Opinion surveys appear to support this view. It is therefore difficult to understand why the government continues to pursue its 'no upper limits' immigration policy.

6. NEW MEASURES HAVE YET TO BE EFFECTIVE

The government has taken action to reduce illegal immigration, but not to reduce legal immigration. On 8 January 2003 the government's UK Nationality, Immigration and Asylum Act 2002 came into force. This and subsequent measures show that the government is taking the necessary measures to stop widespread abuse of the asylum system, and asylum applications have decreased. Policies to control legal immigration, however, have not prevented further increases in inflows, with the effect of raising the rate of population growth.

7. NO REMAINING ARGUMENTS FOR EXCESS IMMIGRATION

Since the UK government came to power in 1997 migration has added more than a million people to UK population (see UK Population Figures), yet the government still has a pro-growth policy. Its economic case for this appears to be based on a Treasury/Home Office report on the economic benefits of migration: a research study by the Home Office Research, Development and Statistics Directorate with the Performance and Innovation Unit and the Institute for Public Policy Research [The migrant population in the UK: fiscal effects, RDS Occasional Paper 77, Gott & Johnston, published 22 February 2002]. This study cites a £2.5 billion a year fiscal benefit from immigration. The basis of this calculation has been been criticised as flawed by Cambridge University Professor of Economics Robert Rowthorn (download PDF of critique from Civitas), and the assumed economic benefits of excess immigration by Professor Rowthorn and Oxford University Professor of Demography David Coleman in their 2004 paper The economic effects of immigration into the United Kingdom [Population and Development Review 30(4), 579-624, December 2004]

Economic arguments in favour of excess immigration include the proposition that increasing numbers of young people, including immigrants, are needed to support an ageing population: however, like all young people, immigrants, if they settle and/or become citizens, in turn grow old and require support. (According to the 2001 Census 4.8% of people aged 85 or over in England & Wales were born outside the UK.) A further flow of immigrants would then be needed to restore the balance, leading to unlimited population growth. A United Nations Population Division study Replacement Migration, UK Scenario V, 2000 demonstrated that for the UK to retain as a constant its 1995 support ratio of working-age people to older dependants (4.09), it would need to import 59.8 million immigrants between 1995 and 2050. This would involve inward net migration of more than a million people every year and more than double UK population to 136 million by 2050. There are other solutions to the economic'problems' caused by ageing. See Ageing and hidden unemployment..

8. POPULATION GROWTH IS NOT JUST A MIGRATION ISSUE

As stated already, immigration is only one component part of any population policy with the aim of long term economic, environmental and social sustainability. Seven out of 10 people say that Britain is already overcrowded [overpopulated]. Yet the government still has no minister responsible for overall population policy, nor any stated view on what levels of population are sustainable or desirable for the UK now or in the long term. To the best of our knowledge no government department has conducted any studies of the effects of overpopulation or continued population growth on the environment. Reports on the impacts of economic growth on the environment tend to brush aside the underlying issue of population growth and deny the effects of long-term compound growth. It can only be concluded from the government's actions, therefore, that although it has curbed illegal immigration, its deliberate population policy is still to encourage higher inward legal migration and therefore continuous population growth. See Action and politics . The opposition Conservative Party appears to have considered the issue of population growth, but still maintains it should continue, at a slower rate.

9. EUROPEAN UNION EXPANSION

Current EU policy is designed to reduce illegal immigration into the EU, but there is no clear intention to restrain internal movements of legal migrants within the EU.

10. SUMMARY

10.1 NO CHOICE FOR THE UK ELECTORATE

Before the May 2005 General Election, for the first time in history, voters for mainstream political parties had a clear choice of policies on immigration and could decide which was most likely to help to halt population growth. Conservative party policy proved overwhelmingly more popular than those of the other parties, and since the election the Labour government has adopted some Conservative policies, such as the introduction of a points-based immigration system. No party, however, has yet addressed the issue of the environmental impacts of UK population growth or the potential benefits of gradual decrease to a lower level. See Action and politics . (For party policies on reducing teenage pregnancies, see Fertility .)

10.2 IMMIGRATION POLICY COMPONENTS OF POPULATION POLICY

A population policy with clear targets and limits to growth should be the responsibility of government. As far as the immigration component is concerned, the government has now firmly stated its wish to curb illegal immigration, but its 2005 five-year plan maintained a 'no upper limits' policy on legal immigration. Government policy still favours net (excess) inward migration and therefore continued overall population growth, with no clear limits set. We hope that a 'zero net effect migration' policy will be the next step, after fuller consideration of the environmental and economic costs of further population growth.

Of the measures listed below (a menu of possibilities), some are already being introduced, and it is now clear that significant numbers of would-be illegal migrants and asylum seekers have been prevented from entering the UK. The number of legal immigrants, however, continues to grow.

Solutions to curb population growth by excess immigration and the excess granting of work permits and citizenships can be chosen according to which are the most effective and acceptable to legitimate British citizens, with consideration for those refugees suffering genuinely life-threatening state persecution, and allow scope for accepting more genuine asylum-seekers, providing that there is a compensating reduction in the flow of economic migrants. Measures could include one or more of the following:

10.2.1 Clearer interpretation of UK obligations under the European Convention on Human Rights and if necessary the 1951 Geneva Convention on Refugees, to prevent further abuse of the EHCR by economic migrants seeking a way to enter signatory countries by claiming asylum. [Note: the government has said it wants to renegotiate the ECHR to enable terrorists to be deported, and Conservative Party policy includes withdrawal from the 1951 Convention on Refugees - see Action and Politics .]

10.2.2 Reintroduction of UK border controls, with computerised logging of all those entering and leaving the country, with intra-EU cross-checking of passport and visa details to check validity.[Note: the government's five-year strategy for asylum and immigration includes the introduction of electronic checks on all those entering and leaving the UK. ]

10.2.3 More severe penalties, and enforcement of them, against people traffickers.

10.2.4 More severe penalties for solicitors who dishonestly assist illegal immigrants to obtain legal services or documentation, or otherwise knowingly assist in fraudulent asylum claims.
[Note: The government now requires immigration advisory services (usually legal firms) to register, and is planning to set up pilot services of its own to investigate methods of abuse such as the overcharging of asylum seekers, economic migrants and taxpayer-funded claims and appeals systems.]

10.2.5 Limits on the automatic rights of the 73 million citizens of 10 new countries joining the EU on 1 May 2004 to work in the UK.
[Note: When the UK labour market opened to citizens of the eight new EU accession countries on 1 May 2004, economic migrants from the 'A8' were required to join a work register on their arrival in the UK, with rights to benefits allowed only after a full year's work has been completed. In the period from 1 May to mid-2006, an estimated 600,000 entered the UK to work, compared with a forecast figure of 5,000 to 13,000. In October 2006 the government decided to restrict access by migrants from Bulgaria and Romania. See Europe section above.]

10.2.6 Introduction of secure identity cards incorporating biometric data (fingerprint or iris recognition) for UK citizens and/or temporary immigrants - if these are to be used for the purpose of controlling and reducing immigration numbers. There is deep concern, however, about intrusion into personal privacy and state control of private information: identity cards, should incorporate essential identity data only, such as name, address and national insurance number, and should be protected by legislation from the addition of other personal data without the consent of the individual or of parliament.

10.2.7 Compulsory presentation of such documents for entitlement to taxpayer-funded health, education and other public services in the UK.
Note: although presentation of biometric identity documents to gain access to public services is not yet proposed, the government has announced plans to curb abuse of medical services by overseas visitors and people with no legal right to be in the UK. On 1 April 2004 hospital regulations were amended to deny free access to certain groups of overseas visitors, and on 14 May 2004 a consultation paper was issued proposing that GPs (General Practitioners) be required to ask their patients for documentary proof of identity and entitlement to free healthcare. Spouses and other relatives of foreign long-term workers in the UK (for example, wives about to give birth), will not be entitled to free NHS care. Emergency cases will continue to be treated. There are serious public concerns about the type of data to be included on ID cards and about protection of privacy of information.

10.2.8 A centrally cross-checkable system of names, addresses, date of birth, national insurance numbers and work permit details for all UK residents, with strict data protection legislation. Like the proposals for identity cards, however, to which the register would be linked, this has caused deep disquiet about privacy and abuse of personal information.
Note: a national population register is being planned by the Office of National Statistics and central online registration of births, deaths and marriages is to be introduced. This is in addition to a planned national identity register.

10.2.9 Clear guidance for employers, including those using agencies and subcontractors, on how to check documentation to ensure that employees are not illegal workers, with penalties for employers of illegal migrants.
Note: this has now been done, and more secure categories of documentation, such as passports or full birth certificates, have to be presented to employers. Fines of up to £2,500 per illegal employee will be levied on employers of illegal labour.

10.2.10 Raising of fees for work permits to a level which restores incentives for employers to recruit Britons instead of importing foreign workers.

10.2.11  Further reductions in quotas for immigrant workers from outside the EU, to compensate for expected inflows from within the EU and prevent 'poaching' of trained staff from developing countries.
Notes: (1) Construction workers: one suitable case is quotas for construction industry workers. There is surplus commercial property capacity in the UK and much of proposed housebuilding is to accommodate future excess inward migration. (2) Health workers - Doctors: while recruitment of overseas doctors continues, many newly qualified British doctors were reported in mid-2005 to be unable to find jobs. Nurses: in August 2004 the UK and South African governments backed a voluntary agreement to curb poaching of trained South African nurses by the UK private health sector.(3) Teachers: In September 2004 the UK government and more than 20 Commonwealth countries agreed to restrictions on the recruitment of overseas teachers by agencies, by the awarding of a 'quality standard' which can be removed on non-compliance. (4) Catering and hospitality workers: this appears to be the least necessary employment category and the most open to abuse, and in June 2005 the government closed the Sectors Based Scheme for non-EEA nationals, stating that it could be filled by workers from EEA countries.

10.2.12  There should be no further amnesties for illegal immigrants, and all should be deported. An amnesty was granted to 50,000 asylum seekers in 2003 and a report by the parliamentary Home Affairs Select Committee published on 26 January 2004 recommended that no more amnesties should be granted.
[Note: The Prime Minister pledged in September 2004 to increase removals of failed asylum seekers, still below the number of new asylum claims each month.]

10.2.13 Non-EU immigrants currently have to live in the UK for five years before they can apply for citizenship. Since citizenship once granted cannot, and morally should not, be revoked except in extreme circumstances such as terrorist threat, the period could be extended and become dependent on a minimum contribution having been made to the UK in the form of taxes and national insurance.
Note: English tests (ESOL Level 3) or compulsory English language courses are being introduced for immigrants wishing to become UK citizens. Low-skilled workers will no longer have rights to settle permanently in the UK.

10.2.14 Penalties for marriages of convenience ('sham marriages') made to secure citizenship could be more severe. Before recent regulation changes there were estimated to be 10,000 bogus marriages a year.
[Note: on 22 April 2004 the government announced measures to stop this malpractice, estimated to account for 3,000 - 15,000 marriages. These have now come into effect: non-EU nationals marrying EU citizens in the UK will have to marry at specially designated registry offices.]

10.2.15 Language schools and other education institutions which arrange entry permits (student visas that allow students also to work for up to 20 hours a week) for immigrant students under false pretences can be closed down.
Note: Some action has now been taken - an accreditation scheme and monitoring scheme for colleges will be operating before the end of 2004. Foreign students will only be allowed to register for courses with accredited education providers. By mid-June 2004 more than 100 bogus colleges had been identified, one in four of those visited by immigration officials, but few of the illegal 'students' have been traced.

10.2.16 Universities could be encouraged to raise the fees they charge to overseas students to a level which reduces the inflow of students while maintaining total fee income.
Note: students from the EU 25 member states pay the same fees as UK students (currently £1,150 a year), while non-EU students pay higher and variable fees. In 2005 the government raised the cost of visa extensions for non-EU students wishing to continue their studies in the UK to up to £500.

10.2.17 A quota system for work permits should be introduced, with measures - such as a delay period - to encourage employers to search harder for UK employees before using work permits to import fresh labour. This will become increasingly necessary if underemployed Britons (older people, the disabled and underemployed ethnic minorities) are to find work. In 2004 the number of non-EU citizens given work permits under different employment schemes rose 8.6% from 2003, to 181,432.

10.2.18 The Working Holidaymaker scheme, which allows Commonwealth citizens aged 17-27 to enter the UK for two years with some working rights, could be restricted to lower numbers and/or the term limited to one year, and switching from short-term work permits to long-term categories should be discouraged.
Note: this has been done, effective from 8 Feburary 2005, with the term restricted from two years to one year with curbs on switching into employment in certain categories.

10.2.19 Visa-holders should be checked out of the UK as well as checked in, and to deter visa abuse those who overstay visa periods could be penalised by not being allowed to return to the UK, except for compassionate and exceptional reasons, for 10 years.
[Note: At the Labour party conference in September 2004, the prime minister pledged to reintroduce passport embarkation controls.]