Environmentally unsustainable migration

Five years ago OPT called for UK population to be stabilised and allowed to decrease gradually to an environmentally sustainable level. As well as voluntary fertility measures, the population policies proposed included zero net (balanced) migration - that annual immigration numbers should be limited to no more than the number of people emigrating.

By autumn 2008, after years of procrastination and against the wishes of the majority of the electorate, it looked as if this policy would be considered by most political parties ahead of the General Election due in 2009 or 2010. A cross-party parliamentary group led by Frank Field MP (Lab) and Nicholas Soames MP (Con) launched its Balanced Migration report on 8 September 2008, calling for immigration to be brought "substantially lower until it is close to the rate of emigration". This followed a 23 May 2008 House of Commons Treasury Committee report Counting the Population which confirmed flaws in official migration counting methods and suggesting ways of making overall population counting more accurate. On 23 October 2007 the 2006-based population projections released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) had projected higher population growth than ever before - nearly 17 million more people (more than two Londons) to 77.2 million in 2050, with the major contribution coming from expected future net migration. How different the impact on our environment would be if action on population policy projections had been taken years ago.

The UK has a history of significant migration flows, both immigration and emigration, but today's level of inward migration is unlike any witnessed in the last 100 years. A combination of factors, including mass international travel, the globalisation of labour markets, free movement within the European Union, people trafficking, government policy, and the incorporation into UK law of international human rights law, have combined to raise net inward flows to record levels, with environmental consequences that have yet to be properly addressed. Under the current government's migration policy, both gross and net inward migration continue at very high levels, and in spite of legislation to control the flow, there is little sign yet that this trend will significantly reverse. Figures for the years 1971-2007 below show that half of all net inward migration since 1971 has occurred in the last decade. In the 1950s net natural change accounted for 98% of population change and net migration for only 2%. But with no confirmed policy intent by the government to curb migration, it is now projected, directly and indirectly due to its impact on the birth rate, to account for 70% of population growth from 2006 to 2031.

Defining and counting migrants

An immigrant is usually defined as someone who enters a country intending to stay for more than a year, and net annual migration is the number of immigrants who enter in any one year minus the number of emigrants who leave, or vice versa. For many years, migration flows into the UK have been measured by the International Passenger Survey (IPS), a random sample of passengers entering and leaving the UK by air, sea or the Channel Tunnel. This method has been recognised as inadequate, and changes are under way at the newly independent UK Statistics Authority (ONS) which will make the counts more accurate in future. Among the migrants who enter each year are the 'long-term' migrants planning to stay for more than a year and 'short-term' migrants who planning to stay for between one and 12 months. Short-term net migration also continues to grow, reaching 430,000 stays of, on average, 3.7 months in England and Wales in the year to mid-2006.

Net inward migration together with its impact on natural increase, is the main cause of UK population growth now running at some 350,000 a year - adding to the UK a city larger than Cardiff - a capital city - every year. And the spiralling rate of inward migration has consistently been underestimated. The latest principal 2006-based population projection, released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on 23 October 2007, revealed expected population growth of nearly 17 million (more than two Londons) to 77.2 million in 2050, with net inward migration estimated at 190,000 a year for most of that period. This projection suggested substantially higher growth than the ones published in 2004 and 2003 - when assumed future net inward migration was 130,000 a year. In 2006, migration accounted directly for 54% of population growth of 349,000.

Indirectly, migration also contributes to population increase. Partly due to the younger age profile of immigrants, and partly due to differing cultural attitudes to family size, it has tended to raise the birth rate. In the year to mid-2006 21.9% of births in England and Wales were to mothers born overseas - confirming the cumulative impact of large-scale immigration. In 1993 births to migrant mothers were less than 10% of the total. Another indicator is the number of non UK-born workers in the workforce: in the first three months of 2008 there were 3.7 million, making up 12.5% of total UK employment. Since January to March 1997 the increase in UK-born workers has been 1.4 million and the increase in non UK-born workers 1.8 million, 45% and 55% of the total increase respectively.

With net legal immigration projected to continue at between 190,000 and 256,000 a year between 2007 and 2017, estimates of population growth have been substantially revised. Unless action is taken to bring the numbers down, or the growing number of emigrants increases to bring inward and outward flows into balance, UK population is forecast to grow by another 10 million by 2030. And if the latest High Fertility, High Life Expectancy and High Migration projection became reality, the UK could be squeezing in 109 million people by 2081.

UK population policy doesn't have to turn its citizens into battery chickens, devasting the country's natural resources. With zero net migration (equivalent to natural change with balanced inward and outward flows), UK population might peak at 64 million in 2036, then gradually decrease to more environmentally sustainable levels. See OPT Population policy projections.

How did this mass migration happen?

Net immigration, mainly from outside the European Union, began to rise in 1993-4, after a rare year of balance in 1992-3. More recently flows into the UK have been exacerbated by free movement of labour within the European Union and the UK's 'open-door' policy to the 10 accession countries which joined the EU in May 2004 and January 2007: in the first three months of 2008, there were an estimated 500,000 people from the eight 2004 accession countries working in the UK. Between 1 May 2004 and 31 March 2008 a total 845,000 Eastern Europeans applied for registration on the Workers Registration Scheme, of which 812,000 won initial approval. Applications peaked at 22,000 in July 2007 but in spite of an economic downturn, there were 12,000 applications in March 2008. These inward flows have risen to levels never previously experienced and which cannot continue, in OPT's view, for the sake of all those now living in the UK, including generations of immigrants, including refugees, already accepted as Britons.

In the years 1999-2003, asylum seekers made up a growing and large proportion of total immigration numbers, and an estimated 80% of these proved not to be genuine asylum seekers. The UK has a history of receiving and assimilating immigrants, especially refugees, of which it is rightly proud. The suffering endured by genuine refugees cannot be underestimated, and they can and should be welcomed. Belated government measures reduced the number of asylum seekers to 23,430 in 2007 - less than a third of the peak level in 2002, and there may be scope to increase this number in future if the number of economic migrants is reduced. However, the EU is unlikely to be able to take in a possible 50 million or more environmental refugees expected to be displaced by climate change - the solutions to this are immediate worldwide action to curb global warming and reverse population growth. Europe is already experiencing its own environmental stresses caused by climate change and is overshooting its capacity to regenerate natural resources.

Every country needs to consider its future. A range of environmental and economic factors, including climate change requirements and impacts, energy security and degraded and diminishing natural resources, make it unlikely that the UK will in future be able to support its current numbers. OPT estimates, based on ecological footprinting, suggest that an environmentally sustainable population for the UK , assuming an equal share of world consumption of renewable resources, might be as low as 17 million. OPT maintains that it would be better for the UK and other countries to consider their environmentally sustainable levels of population and adapt population policies accordingly, alongside other environmental policies.

Government migration policy

The devastating environmental consequences of continuous UK population growth are becoming clear. If it continues, the effects will become worse - continued population growth at the 2000-2006 rate would require the building of some eight million extra homes by 2050. The Home Office UK Border Agency is the government department responsible for controlling migration levels. But neither the Home Office nor any other government department appears to recognise the environmental impacts of continuous population growth, or the significance of its migration component - now projected to account for 70% of future population growth when migrant fertility rates are taken into account as well as annual direct migrant inflows. Some of those entering the UK are British citizens returning from abroad - themselves previous emigrants - but in 2006, 510,000 immigrants (86%) were non-British citizens. 'Work-related" reasons accounted for 40% of inward migration in 2006, and 'formal study' for just under 25%, with much of the rest due to to family reunion.

The government's first moves were to reduce reduce illegal immigration, particularly from surging asylum applications in 2000-2003. There have yet to be explicit policies to reduce legal immigration. On 8 January 2003 the government's UK Nationality, Immigration and Asylum Act 2002 came into force. This and subsequent measures were believed necessary to stop widespread abuse of the asylum system, and asylum applications have decreased.

In February 2005 the then Home Secretary Charles Clarke laid out the government's new detailed strategy for migration - see Controlling our borders: Making migration work for Britain [Home Office Immigration and Nationality Directorate]. (* Note: In May 2004 OPT submitted proposals to the parliamentary Environmental Audit Committee on the government's Sustainable Development Strategy, proposing new indicators of national population density for inclusion in the strategy's national sustainable development headline indicators.)

The 2004-5 Home Office IND plans were followed by a consultation document Selective admission: making migration work, whose circulation list did not appear to include any environmental organisations. The Home Office's revised policy of July 2006 Rebuilding confidence in our immigration system emphasised the strengthening of UK borders with tougher checks abroad; fast-track asylum decisions; and better enforcement of compliance with immigration laws.

The objective was to "boost Britain's economy by bringing the right skills here from around the world". A new Border and Immigration Bill was brought before Parliament in the 2006/7 session, however, and in October 2006, OPT was invited for the first time to contribute to stakeholder discussions with the Home Office. For full details of the latest version of the Immigration, Asylum and Nationality Bill, see Home Office Law and Policy: Legislation.

In 2008 the government began to roll out its new Points-Based immigration system, but without any commitment to limit numbers. The new system divides potential immigrants into five tiers according to their skills, with easy routes to citizenship for Tier 1 and Tier 2 migrants and no settlement rights for low-skilled workers from outside the EEA. Ministers have consistently ducked OPT's questions about the government's apparent pro-population growth policy. But following a cabinet reshuffle in September 2008, new Immigration Minister Phil Woolas gave the first indication that the government may finally accept that "there has to be a limit."

Adding to the UK's perpetually rising population

The latest (Mid-2006 based) official UK population projection from the ONS Government Actuary's Department projects even faster population growth than the ones published over the three years before. (Historically, population projections have tended to overestimate fertility and rates and underestimate mortality changes and migration flows.) These population projections are not underpinned by any clearly stated government target to reduce migration or total population size to genuinely sustainable levels. No overpopulated country can viably reduce its population size without tackling the issues of fertility (see Fertility ) and migration - and the health, employability and productivity of its existing workforce (see Ageing and unemployment ).

Excess immigration exacerbates internal flows

UK population growth is causing widespread local population growth and rising densities, and therefore increasing urbanisation - see Local population densities. International and internal migration are not areas to which equal treatment can be applied. All nation states have borders, and in order to maintain their independence as sovereign states, they impose border controls and laws governing the numbers of people who can enter for the purpose of settlement. In democratic nation states there are usually no legal restrictions on internal movement and settlement - this is considered one of the freedoms that come with citizenship of a democracy. As in other countries, internal migration is a normal and continuous process in Britain for a wide variety of reasons - some people leave rural areas for cities to find jobs and excitement, often southwards from Scotland and the north of England, while others move out to rural areas in search of unspoilt landscapes and tranquillity - but find that less of it remains each year.

By driving up overall population growth and urban development, however, a combination of natural increase and increased immigration has exacerbated internal migration flows in the UK. As cities become overpopulated, citydwellers spill into the suburbs, then have to move into wider commuter belts, then in greater numbers into a dwindling number of of rural areas. In doing so they turn the countryside they value into yet more urban sprawl, as separate settlements expand and merge into one another. See Countryside, housing and development.

Regional imbalances are exaggerated by these population flows, and international migration into London , where already one in four people are foreign born, is likely to cause further pressures. England passed the 50 million population threshold in mid-2004 and has been most affected by international and internal migration. Displacement of London's population to surrounding areas is a key factor behind unrelenting urban expansion into the suburbs and countryside. By 2002, the population of rural England (14.1 million) was increasing by 100,000 a year, and has since risen further. Rejuvenation of rural areas can be brought about by small-scale or temporary exchanges of population - large and permanent influx and settlement are not necessary to achieve diversity or innovation. See Countryside . In Scotland, population began to rise again in 2004 after falling to nearly five million. The population of Wales rose by 0.5% in the year to mid-2004 and has grown by about 5% over the last 20 years, with the growth coming mainly from English incomers.

The numbers are still too high

Far from reversing naturally, and in spite of recent measures to control the illegal component of migration, large inward flows looked set to continue well into 2008, with the possibility that economic recession might stem the flow in 2009. Categories of migrant according to the new points-based system put into action in 2008 are:

For full details of the rules for various categories of migrant admissions to the UK see Home Office UK Border Agency . Here are brief summaries:

1. Categories of immigrants

Legal immigrants are defined as those who enter the UK with the purpose of staying for more than one year, and who have permission to do so (annual figures are based on the International Passenger Survey).

2. Illegal immigration

All non-EEA citizens who travel to the UK need a valid visa to enter and remain legally in the country, and a normal tourist visa usually lasts for only six months: see UK Visas. But because the UK has abandoned embarkation border controls - checking people out as they leave the UK, no-one knows how many people remain in the UK illegally. Illegal immigrants include: non-working students who have completed their courses and breached visa limits; people who have applied to 'bogus' colleges to acquire visas; other visitors who have outstayed their visas, rejected asylum seekers who have not left the UK; and illegal workers using false identity documentation. It is not known how many illegal immigrants are still present in the UK, but the official estimate is some 500,000.

3. Asylum seekers

In 1982, there were just 4,223 asylum claims in the UK. The figures began to rise in the 1990s as international travel became easier, and rose sharply after the incorporation of international human rights legislation into the UK Human Rights Act in 1998, followed by an increase in international people trafficking. Not until 2003 did applications begin to fall from their peak of 80,130 in 2002.. Permanent settlement rights were modified from 1 April 2003, with Exceptional Leave to Remain being replaced by Humanitarian Protection or Discretionary Leave, and in 2007, following stricter enforcement of asylum rules by the Home Office, applications (excluding dependants) were down to 23,430, with removals of failed asylum seekers at 63,140. Including dependants, however, there was a 14% rise in applications in the first three months of 2008 compared with the same period in 2007.

As a component of a population policy aimed at stabilising UK population and allowing gradual decrease, a choice can be made between welcoming more asylum seekers and fewer economic migrants and whether to restrict the flow of workers from the European Economic Area (EEA) or from outside the EEA, or from both. [Note: For statistics on the numbers and distribution of asylum seekers within the EU, see United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.]

4. Legal immigration: students

There are several categories of legal immigrant, including legitimate students, immigrant workers with bona fide short-term work permits, and genuine asylum seekers whose claims have been accepted. Home Office estimates suggested (2005) that up to 5,000 illegal immigrants a year were entering the UK by enrolling at universities without intending to study, but this may have been reduced by checks and other measures since introduced, including a new visa category of 'Student Visitor' (from 1 September 2007) for students who come to the UK to join courses lasting no more than six months.

Legal student immigration, however, looks set to continue to rise, mainly because the government has set no limits to legal migration from the EU/EEA and because non-EEA overseas students bring in higher fees for UK universities than British students do. Students must intend to leave the UK when they have completed their studies, except for those who complete a UK degree who are allowed to stay on for a year to work without getting a work permit. Student au pairs fall into a separate category, since they come to the UK for a maximum of two years to combine household help with children with study, and are usually accommodated in existing family homes. In 2007 an estimated 358,000 non-EEA students were admitted to the UK in 2007, 16% more than in the previous year.

The effect of rising student inflows on long-term population growth depends on the extent to which they are able to remain in and/or work in the UK, and the extent to which they intermarry with UK citizens and become permanent settlers. The recent expansion in student numbers has already contributed to actual and projected population growth, and an increase in the number of non-UK students taking up citizenship or settlement rights after graduation would cause even greater population growth. No estimate of the environmental and economic costs of such expansion - including greater pressure on land prices, housing and infrastructure, and higher demand for imported energy - has yet been made. Some universities are already expanding building development on green belt land. Financial benefits have accrued to universities and their employees, but the environmental costs of large-scale expansion will have to be met by all UK taxpayers.

There have also been generous grants of extensions to stay for international students in the UK - to nearly 100% of students from certain countries in 2001-2003, compared with only 2% of foreign students in the USA seeking extensions to stay in that period.

5. Legal immigration: settlement rights and citizenship

On 14 July 2008 the government published a draft Immigration and Citizenship Bill, but, as expected, did not say whether its aim was to reduce migration and settlement levels. The number of people allowed to settle indefinitely in the UK, excluding European Economic Area (EEA) nationals, doubled from below 60,000 in 1997 to 124,855 in 2007. Of the 2007 total, employment-related grants of settlement were 41% lower at 37,210 in 2007 than in 2005 - reflecting a change in the qualifying period for settlement from four to five years in all employment-related categories in April 2006. This level of settlement, and the number of settlers who are granted citizenship, is one of the main components of migration-related population growth.

Citizenship of the UK brings the right to permanent settlement for individuals and all their descendants in perpetuity, granting benefits that generations of Britons of all backgrounds have worked for, yet until recently citizenship has been given away (with few exceptions) as if it were worthless. By January-March 2008 there were 3.7 million non UK born workers in the UK - 12.5% of total employment. Migrants needed to work in the UK for only four years to become eligible for automatic settlement rights (in April 2006 this was extended to five years, and the new points-based immigration system for has curbed settlement rights for low-skilled workers). So the granting of citizenship has been increasing steadily and shows little sign of abating in spite of the tougher qualifications and fees imposed by the government in 2005-7 which led to a fall in applications from nearly a quarter of million in 2005 to 160,980 in 2007. In 1997 only 37,010 British citizenships were granted. Ten years later, in 2007, resulting from years of high inward migration flows, a record 164,635 people were granted citizenship, with 53% granted to people already resident in the UK, 18% due to marriage, and 25% to children.

6. Legal immigration: work permits

The number of work permit holders and their dependents being granted entry to the UK by the government has also been growing steadily. In 1998, 68,385 immigrant work permit holders and their dependants were granted entry to the UK. In 2004, a total 181,432 (4,204 training and work-based + 16,858 sector-based + 160,370 business and commercial work permits) were issued, more than double the 1998 figure. (These are issued to non-EU citizens, excluding dependents). [Source: Worker Registration Scheme and Work Permit figures published, Home Office, 22 Feb 2005]. By enabling more economic migrants to gain work permits, bring in dependants and extend their stay or remain permanently in the UK, these trends increase the certainty of further population growth.

7. The 'perpetual spiral' labour effect of excess immigration

Far from solving labour market requirements, excess immigration appears to have made them worse - by increasing the base population requiring services for which there may already be an inadequate supply of labour. If more people enter than leave, and the inflow is excessive, a perpetual spiral of demand for further immigration can be created. Population growth of about 250,000 a year from 2001-2004 has not solved the 'problems' of skills shortages. It has instead created additional demand for goods and services which employers claim they need to import yet more labour to satisfy. See Economy .

Back door population growth

Some visas or work permits are issued for categories of work which encourage cultural exchange (for example student schemes and au pairs). Work permits are also issued to fill gaps in the labour market - particularly in high-skilled areas where it takes years to train a new recruit, and in international companies where diverse linguistic talent or cultural knowledge are vital. If these migrant exchanges are very specifically targeted at skills gaps and the overall migration numbers are (numerically) balanced, they need not increase population pressure on the environment.

The government views levels of migration as a matter to be dealt with mainly by market forces, with 'no obvious upper limits' to inward migration. Once granted, however, citizenship is an open-ended commitment, valid for the lifetimes of the original applicant and his or her descendants. Market forces do not effectively measure long-term environmental impacts and economic obligations against short-term benefits to the economy, which are usually not considered for more than a few years ahead. Applying a market forces policy to the granting of citizenships is the equivalent, in economic terms, of matching a 5-year asset against an obligation extending for thousands of years.

No remaining arguments for excess immigration

Since the UK government came to power in 1997 migration has added more than a million people to UK population (see UK Population Figures), yet the government still has a pro-growth policy. Its economic case for this appeared to be based on a Treasury/Home Office report on the economic benefits of migration: a research study by the Home Office Research, Development and Statistics Directorate with the Performance and Innovation Unit and the Institute for Public Policy Research [The migrant population in the UK: fiscal effects, RDS Occasional Paper 77, Gott & Johnston, published 22 February 2002]. This study cites a £2.5 billion a year fiscal benefit from immigration. The basis of this calculation has been been criticised as flawed by Cambridge University Professor of Economics Robert Rowthorn, published by Civitas), and the assumed economic benefits of excess immigration by Professor Rowthorn and Oxford University Professor of Demography David Coleman in their 2004 paper The economic effects of immigration into the United Kingdom [Population and Development Review 30(4), 579-624, December 2004]. Finally, the House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs demolished the case for excess immigration in its report "The Economic Impact of Immigration", published on 1 April 2008.

Economic arguments in favour of excess immigration include the proposition that increasing numbers of young people, including immigrants, are needed to support an ageing population: however, like all young people, immigrants, if they settle and/or become citizens, in turn grow old and require support. (According to the 2001 Census 4.8% of people aged 85 or over in England & Wales were born outside the UK.) A further flow of immigrants would then be needed to restore the balance, leading to unlimited population growth. A United Nations Population Division study Replacement Migration, UK Scenario V, 2000 demonstrated that for the UK to retain as a constant its 1995 support ratio of working-age people to older dependants (4.09), it would need to import 59.8 million immigrants between 1995 and 2050. This would involve inward net migration of more than a million people every year and more than double UK population to 136 million by 2050. There are other solutions to the economic'problems' caused by ageing. See Ageing and hidden unemployment..

Population growth is not just a migration issue

As already stated, immigration is only one component part of any population policy with the aim of long term economic, environmental and social sustainability. Seven out of 10 people say that Britain is already overcrowded [overpopulated]. Yet the government still has no minister responsible for overall population policy, nor any stated view on what levels of population are sustainable or desirable for the UK now or in the long term. To the best of our knowledge no government department has conducted any studies of the effects of overpopulation or continued population growth on the environment. Reports on the impacts of economic growth on the environment tend to brush aside the underlying issue of population growth and deny the effects of long-term compound growth. It can only be concluded from the government's actions, therefore, that although it has curbed illegal immigration, its deliberate population policy, corroborated by the UN in its World Population Policies 2007 is still to encourage higher inward legal migration and therefore continuous population growth. See Action and politics .

EU Migration policy

Current EU policy under the presidency of France is designed to reduce illegal immigration into the EU, but there is no clear intention to restrain internal movements of legal migrants within the EU. EU policy has become more important as the EU has taken powers from national governments to control the flow of people within EU borders, while exercising more centralised powers to curb illegal migration into the EU from outside EU borders. Although the flow of non-EU migrants into the UK still outnumbers arrivals from EU member states, there was a sharp rise in the numbers of Eastern European migrants to the UK from 2004 to 2007, which has only recently shown signs of abating. EU Directives looked set to increase population pressure on the UK - such as the Services Directive (allowing EU citizens from the accession countries to set up businesses in other member states), and Directive 2004/38/EC, which would allow complete freedom of movement within the EU for EU citizens and the automatic right to settle in another member state after five years. See Free movement and residence rights for EU citizens.

Consistent public opposition: can everyone be wrong?

Opposition to excessive immigration has been consistent and overwhelming in the UK for more than five years, but until recently debate has been stifled by unfounded accusations of xenophobia and support for far-right politics against the majority of those opposed. Given current public opinion and a mounting body of evidence against the benefits of mass immigration, it is difficult to understand why the government, and some opposition parties, continue to pursue their 'no upper limits' immigration policies. Below are the conclusions of just a few polls:

Conclusion

LITTLE CHOICE FOR THE UK ELECTORATE

Before the May 2005 General Election, for the first time in history, voters for mainstream political parties had a clear choice of policies on immigration and could decide which was most likely to help to halt population growth. Conservative party policy proved overwhelmingly more popular than those of the other parties, and since the election the Labour government has adopted some Conservative policies, such as the introduction of a points-based immigration system. No party, however, has yet addressed the issue of the environmental impacts of UK population growth or the potential benefits of gradual decrease to a lower level. See Action and politics . (For party policies on reducing teenage pregnancies, see Fertility .)