What's the population problem?

Dangerously rapid climate change and rising food, water and fuel scarcity are already threatening human populations. And many other species, on a finite planet. Yet by 2050 world population is expected to grow by another 2.4 billion from today's 6.8 billion - unless urgent action is taken.

What's the population solution?

GLOBALLY: reduce birth rates. NATIONALLY: reduce or keep birth rates low and/or balance migration to prevent population increase. All countries need environmentally sustainable population policies to underpin other green policies. PERSONALLY: have fewer children and work a few more years before retiring.

Global population policy

AIM To reduce projected population growth of 2.4 billion by 2050 by at least 1.4 billion - to reach no more than 7.8 billion by 2050 instead of 9.2 billion.

Every country should have a population policy that is environmentally sustainable for its own citizens and for citizens of the world as whole.

An international protocol should be agreed which commits all nations to achieving environmentally sustainable population levels by peaceful and democratic means.

Every country should act urgently to make family planning services easily accessible to all men and women.

Every country should act urgently to improve women's rights and education, including removing barriers to women's control over their own fertility.

Every country should encourage parents to voluntarily "stop at two" children.

Every country should ensure that its own population has full access to employment, and that older people are enabled to extend their working lives.

Every country should put its population policy into action alongside environmental policies to curb emissions and reduce consumption and resource depletion, to ensure global environmental survival.

EU population policy

AIM To achieve expected population stabilisation of the EU 27 member states at 497 million in 2021-2023 and gradual decrease thereafter to a level which is environmentally sustainable in the long term.

Encourage parents to voluntarily "stop at two" children except in EU states with very low fertility rates.

Structure EU and national tax and benefits systems to provide incentives to parents to have one or two children only.

Offer citizenship to more refugees but fewer economic migrants, to ensure a balanced level of migration that does not incur population growth.

Offer full and flexible employment opportunities to the unemployed and enable older people to extend their working lives.

Raise state and corporate pension ages in line with rises in life expectancy.

UK population policy

AIM To achieve stabilisation within five years and and decrease of not less than 0.25 per cent a year thereafter to a level which is environmentally sustainable in the long term.

Bring immigration into balance with emigration (zero net migration) to ensure a level of migration that does not incur population growth.

Offer citizenship to more refugees but fewer economic migrants.

Encourage parents to voluntarily "stop at two" children.

Structure tax and benefits to reward parents for having one or two children only.

Make greater efforts to reduce the number of unplanned pregnancies, especially among teenagers.

Offer full and flexible employment opportunities to the unemployed, including the young or disabled, and enable older people to extend their working lives.

Raise state and corporate pension ages in line with rises in life expectancy and encourage people to save more for their old age.

OPT POPULATION POLICIES: FERTILITY AND MIGRATION

Population policies need to address Fertility, Migration, and Ageing and unemployment. They need to underpin choices made between different demographic futures for nation states, for example OPT Population policy projections for the UK. OPT recommended the following policies in 2002-2007:

Global fertility policies

Efforts to encourage, voluntarily, small families by education – “stop at two, or have one less” – should be maintained, and should include an environmental justification.

Fiscal incentives specifically intended to encourage women to have large families should always be opposed. Employment and taxation policies that enable women to combine careers with bringing up small families should be encouraged.

Education and women’s empowerment in the area of reproductive and sexual health and the removal of all obstacles to birth control, together with the services to deliver the means of contraception and safer sex, need to be given the highest priority in all countries. This must include reducing gender discrimination and sexual abuse in its many forms together with removal of the barriers to women’s control over their fertility, many of them caused by men - or by religion.

Resourcing an effective and fully accessible supply chain for methods of family planning should be made a priority in every country. This applies especially to long-acting methods such as injections, intrauterine devices and implants (discussed below). This supply chain should avoid medical barriers by primarily using so-called “social marketing”, through small shops and pharmacies, with subsidies to bring down the price for the consumer. It should include not only condoms but also over-the-counter provision of emergency pills, the regular Pill and injections.

Sterilisation, for males (vasectomies) as well as females, must be readily available, as a choice among other methods, but the fact that it is not easily reversible poses problems and should be clearly stated, and attention drawn to the widest possible range of reversible methods – especially the long-acting and reversible contraceptives (LARCs) such as IUDs, injectables and implants.

Education is of paramount importance and must involve the media in providing correct information about methods of contraception and correcting misinformation.

The independent media should play a part by broadcasting information about contraception that is accurate and impartial. TV and radio story-lines should encourage pregnancy by choice rather than by chance. Where appropriate, this could take place through the development of media-industry guidelines.

With one-third of the world's population aged under 20, efforts to reduce teenage pregnancies and encourage later marriage should be continued and strengthened.

Financial incentives can be tailored to include tax allowances, benefits and other social subsidies, such as maternity or paternity leave, which taper off after the second child, but with the proviso that “safety net” arrangements are in force to ensure that children from later births do not suffer.

One-child population policies should be the last resort, limited to emergencies such as so-called “demographic entrapment” where the environment of a region is so damaged as to approach being uninhabitable.

UK Fertility policies

Government agencies should develop joined-up action by co-ordinating all the stakeholders, to avoid wasteful duplications and gaping omissions.

The government should establish new guidelines for the portrayal of sex and fertility issues by broadcasters, print media and internet service providers, drawn up through consultation with industry, health agencies such as the Teenage Pregnancy Unit (TPU) and relevant NGOs and aimed at countering the glamorisation of sex and motherhood among vulnerable groups, and stressing personal and social responsibility.

The government should improve Sex and Relationships Education (SRE) and access to Family Planning and Sexual Health (FPSH) services, in a sympathetic and confidential context.

SRE programmes should present all choices in contraception, including what is sometimes termed “saving sex” – not having sex yet.

LARCs such as "forgettable" contraceptive implants, injections and the intrauterine methods should be made much more readily available to young people.

NHS primary care trusts should reverse the trend of attrition of staff and facilities involved in the provision and training for LARCs.

The government should provide more support and education for parents in the UK for their neglected role of providing good SRE for their own children, aimed at helping parents develop confidence and skills in talking to their own children about sex and relationships.

UK Migration policies

The policy ideas below were proposed by OPT between 2002 and 2005. Solutions can be chosen according to which are the most effective, acceptable and humane. Some have already been incorporated into government policy, but the government has not yet set limits to inward migration. The Conservative opposition has proposed a cap but has not revealed the level at which it would the limit would be set.

Clearer interpretation of UK obligations under the European Convention on Human Rights and if necessary the 1951 Geneva Convention on Refugees, to prevent further abuse of the ECHR by economic migrants seeking a way to enter signatory countries by claiming asylum.

Reintroduction of UK border controls, with computerised logging of all those entering and leaving the country, with intra-EU cross-checking of passport and visa details to check validity.

Clear guidance for employers, including those using agencies and subcontractors, on how to check documentation to ensure that employees are not illegal workers, with penalties for employers of illegal migrants.

Tougher penalties, and enforcement of them, against employers of illegal labour.

Tougher penalties, and enforcement of them, against people traffickers.

Tougher penalties for solicitors who dishonestly assist illegal immigrants to obtain legal services or documentation, or otherwise knowingly assist in fraudulent asylum claims.

Limits on the automatic rights of the 73 million citizens of 10 new countries joining the EU on 1 May 2004 to work in the UK.

Introduction of secure identity cards incorporating biometric data (fingerprint or iris recognition) for UK citizens and/or temporary immigrants - if these are to be used for the purpose of controlling and reducing immigration numbers. Identity cards should incorporate essential identity data only, such as name, address and national insurance number, and should be protected by legislation from the addition of other personal data without the consent of the individual or of parliament.

Compulsory presentation of such documents for entitlement to taxpayer-funded health, education and other public services in the UK.

Introduction of a centrally cross-checkable system of names, addresses, date of birth, national insurance numbers and work permit details for all UK residents, with strict data protection legislation.

Raising of fees for work permits to a level which restores incentives for employers to recruit Britons instead of importing foreign workers.

Further reductions in quotas for immigrant workers from outside the EU.

There should be no further amnesties for illegal immigrants, and migrants illegally in the UK should be deported. However, non-EU immigrants currently have to live in the UK for five years before they can apply for citizenship. Since citizenship once granted cannot, and morally should not, be revoked except in extreme circumstances such as terrorist threat, the period could be extended and become dependent on a minimum contribution having been made to the UK in the form of taxes and national insurance.

Tougher penalties for marriages of convenience (sham marriages) or forced marriages made to secure citizenship.

Language schools and other education institutions which arrange entry permits (student visas that allow students also to work for up to 20 hours a week) for immigrant students under false pretences can be closed down.

Universities could be encouraged to raise the fees they charge to overseas students to a level which reduces the inflow of students while maintaining total fee income.

A quota system for work permits should be introduced, with measures - such as a delay period - to encourage employers to search harder for UK employees before using work permits to import fresh labour. This will become increasingly necessary if underemployed Britons (older people, the disabled and underemployed ethnic minorities) are to find work.

The Working Holidaymaker scheme, which allows Commonwealth citizens aged 17-27 to enter the UK for two years with some working rights, could be restricted to lower numbers and/or the term limited to one year, and switching from short-term work permits to long-term categories should be discouraged.

Visa-holders should be checked out of the UK as well as checked in, and to deter visa abuse those who overstay visa periods could be penalised by not being allowed to return to the UK, except for compassionate and exceptional reasons, for 10 years.