What's the population problem?

Dangerously rapid climate change and rising food, water and fuel scarcity are already threatening human populations. And many other species, on a finite planet. Yet by 2050 world population is expected to grow by another 2.3 billion from today's 6.8 billion - unless urgent action is taken.

What's the population solution?

GLOBALLY: reduce birth rates. NATIONALLY: reduce or keep birth rates low and/or balance migration to prevent population increase. All countries need environmentally sustainable population policies to underpin other green policies. PERSONALLY: have fewer children and work a few more years before retiring.

Global population policy

The policy proposals listed below were published between 2002 and 2007.

AIM To reduce projected population growth of 2.3 billion by 2050 by at least 1.3 billion - to reach no more than 8 billion by 2050 instead of 9.1 billion.

Every country should have a population policy that is environmentally sustainable for its own citizens and for citizens of the world as whole.

An international protocol should be agreed which commits all nations to achieving environmentally sustainable population levels by peaceful and democratic means.

Every country should act urgently to make family planning services easily accessible to all men and women.

Every country should act urgently to improve women's rights and education, including removing barriers to women's control over their own fertility.

Every country should encourage parents to voluntarily "stop at two" children.

Every country should ensure that its own population has full access to employment, and that older people are enabled to extend their working lives.

Every country should put its population policy into action alongside environmental policies to curb emissions and reduce consumption and resource depletion, to ensure global environmental survival.

EU Population policy

AIM To achieve expected population stabilisation of the EU 27 member states at 497 million in 2021-2023 and gradual decrease thereafter to a level which is environmentally sustainable in the long term.

Encourage parents to voluntarily "stop at two" children except in EU states with very low fertility rates.

Structure EU and national tax and benefits systems to provide incentives to parents to have one or two children only.

Offer citizenship to more refugees but fewer economic migrants, to ensure a balanced level of migration that does not incur population growth.

Offer full and flexible employment opportunities to the unemployed and enable older people to extend their working lives.

Raise state and corporate pension ages in line with rises in life expectancy.

UK Population policy

AIM To achieve stabilisation within five years and and decrease of not less than 0.25 per cent a year thereafter to a level which is environmentally sustainable in the long term.

Bring immigration into balance with emigration (zero net migration) to ensure a level of migration that does not incur population growth.

Offer citizenship to more refugees but fewer economic migrants.

Encourage parents to voluntarily "stop at two" children.

Structure tax and benefits to reward parents for having one or two children only.

Make greater efforts to reduce the number of unplanned pregnancies, especially among teenagers.

Offer full and flexible employment opportunities to the unemployed, including the young or disabled, and enable older people to extend their working lives.

Raise state and corporate pension ages in line with rises in life expectancy and encourage people to save more for their old age.

OPT POPULATION POLICIES: FERTILITY AND MIGRATION

Population policies need to address Fertility, Migration, and Ageing and unemployment. They need to underpin choices made between different demographic futures for nation states, for example OPT Population policy projections for the UK.

Global fertility policies

OPT recommended the following policies in 2002-2007:

Fiscal incentives specifically intended to encourage women to have large families should always be opposed. Employment and taxation policies that enable women to combine careers with bringing up small families should be encouraged.

Education and women’s empowerment in the area of reproductive and sexual health and the removal of all obstacles to birth control, together with the services to deliver the means of contraception and safer sex, need to be given the highest priority in all countries. This must include reducing gender discrimination and sexual abuse in its many forms together with removal of the barriers to women’s control over their fertility, many of them caused by men - or by religion.

Resourcing an effective and fully accessible supply chain for methods of family planning should be made a priority in every country. This applies especially to long-acting methods such as injections, intrauterine devices and implants (discussed below). This supply chain should avoid medical barriers by primarily using so-called “social marketing”, through small shops and pharmacies, with subsidies to bring down the price for the consumer. It should include not only condoms but also over-the-counter provision of emergency pills, the regular Pill and injections.

Sterilisation, for males (vasectomies) as well as females, must be readily available, as a choice among other methods, but the fact that it is not easily reversible poses problems and should be clearly stated, and attention drawn to the widest possible range of reversible methods – especially the long-acting and reversible contraceptives (LARCs) such as IUDs, injectables and implants.

Education is of paramount importance and must involve the media in providing correct information about methods of contraception and correcting misinformation.

The independent media should play a part by broadcasting information about contraception that is accurate and impartial. TV and radio story-lines should encourage pregnancy by choice rather than by chance. Where appropriate, this could take place through the development of media-industry guidelines.

With one-third of the world's population aged under 20, efforts to reduce teenage pregnancies and encourage later marriage should be continued and strengthened.

Financial incentives can be tailored to include tax allowances, benefits and other social subsidies, such as maternity or paternity leave, which taper off after the second child, but with the proviso that “safety net” arrangements are in force to ensure that children from later births do not suffer.

One-child population policies should be the last resort, limited to emergencies such as so-called “demographic entrapment” where the environment of a region is so damaged as to approach being uninhabitable.

UK Fertility policies

OPT recommended the following policies in 2002-2007:

Government agencies should develop joined-up action by co-ordinating all the stakeholders, to avoid wasteful duplications and gaping omissions.

The government should establish new guidelines for the portrayal of sex and fertility issues by broadcasters, print media and internet service providers, drawn up through consultation with industry, health agencies such as the Teenage Pregnancy Unit (TPU) and relevant NGOs and aimed at countering the glamorisation of sex and motherhood among vulnerable groups, and stressing personal and social responsibility.

The government should improve Sex and Relationships Education (SRE) and access to Family Planning and Sexual Health (FPSH) services, in a sympathetic and confidential context.

SRE programmes should present all choices in contraception, including what is sometimes termed “saving sex” – not having sex yet.

LARCs such as "forgettable" contraceptive implants, injections and the intrauterine methods should be made much more readily available to young people.

NHS primary care trusts should reverse the trend of attrition of staff and facilities involved in the provision and training for LARCs.

The government should provide more support and education for parents in the UK for their neglected role of providing good SRE for their own children, aimed at helping parents develop confidence and skills in talking to their own children about sex and relationships.

UK Migration policies

Migration is increasing worldwide, driven by overpopulation, resource depletion, climate change and our shrinking world. Throughout history, migration has been a justifiable response to insufficient resources but that is no longer true. The UK, for example, is already consuming three times its fair share of the planet’s resources.¹ England has the highest population density of any comparable country in Europe while the UK population is projected to rise by a further 10 million over the next 25 years.² Net in-migration contributes about half of the UK’s current population growth. OPT understands and sympathises with migrants who wish to improve their lives, and has no views on the colour, ethnic origin or culture of in-migrants. We are concerned solely with human numbers and their impact on sustainability, the environment and the quality of life. Our policies are intended for countries consuming unsustainably, including the UK.

Measures proposed between 2002 and 2007 which are now UK government policy include: confirming the departure of foreign citizens; licensing and inspection of foreign language schools; guidance for employers on hiring foreign workers; stronger anti-trafficking measures; a single border control authority; and stricter regulation of forced or sham marriages.

OPT recommended the following policies in 2009:

The right to asylum and other international human rights commitments should be respected and priority given to refugees from persecution.

Governments should set the policy objective of balanced migration³ and amend policies accordingly.

Migration policies should be non-racist and applied fairly, humanely and uniformly.

The right to work should be separated from the right to settle and citizenship.

Enforcement of legislation should be well resourced and efficiently applied.

Efforts should be made to mitigate the causes of migration.

Further measures should focus on: closing loopholes; reducing evasion; incentivising employers to recruit locally based workers; and improving employability in, and the flexibility of, the labour market, especially for the willing “active old”.

The UK government should ignore intra-EU migration flows, which tend to balance out as economic parity within the EU improves, and promote the above policies at EU level.