PRESS RELEASE 8 FEBRUARY 2005

Not for publication before 1.00 am 8 February 2005

MORE MPs OPPOSE POPULATION GROWTH...

A rolling survey of MPs conducted by the Optimum Population Trust confirms that there is no consensus in favour of population growth. MPs were asked the following question:

Given the implications for future environmental sustainability, do you believe that continuing population growth is good for the UK? YES/NO

Eighty-four responses were received. Of the 28 who answered YES or NO, 18 (64.3%) were against continuing population growth, and 10 (35.7%) were in favour. Of those who did not answer YES or NO but who made comments which leaned in one direction or the other, 8 were 'concerned' or broadly against continuing population growth, and 1 was broadly in favour. Forty-seven of the 84 respondents did not answer the question or express a view.

Of the 28 YES/NO responses, the 18 against further growth came from four different political parties, but the 10 in favour of further growth were either Conservative or Labour MPs. Of the nine who expressed a view without giving a YES/NO answer, eight were Conservatives and one was a Labour MP.

Notes: This survey was conducted between March and September 2004. We recognise that this sample cannot be extrapolated across all MPs. We cannot reveal the identities of respondents.

... BUT DELAYED ACTION MAKES IT MORE DIFFICULT TO REVERSE

UK population is expected to reach 60 million this year, after several years of rapid growth. Population projections published today by the Optimum Population Trust show how failure to reverse rapid growth will make it much harder to achieve population stabilisation.

Overpopulation and overconsumption are already causing serious damage to the global environment. And by not taking action earlier to reverse population growth, successive governments have made the UK’s own population problem far worse. Further growth to 67-71 million by 2050 will do little to improve dependency ratios, and will cause wholesale destruction of the environment in the UK.

OPT asks political parties to consider a population strategy which would stabilise and gradually reduce UK population to 53 million by 2050. This would assume a constant total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.74, with net emigration of 82,000 a year.

OPT POPULATION PROJECTIONS

If put into action in 2000, OPT's recommended population policy (see Projection 02/A/00, achieved by a reduction in unintended pregnancies together with zero net effect migration) would have allowed UK population to peak in 2007, at 59.92 million, followed by gradual reduction to 53 million in 2050. This decrease in population would have enabled governments to regenerate existing housing stock and supporting infrastructure instead of building more than six million new homes and supporting infrastructure by 2050, adding further strains on natural resources, waste, emissions and land supply.

If put into action in 2004, a similar population policy (equivalent to GAD's 2003-based 'Natural change only' projection) would not have enabled population to peak until 2024, at 60.83 million, and numbers would reach 53 million in 2064.

The new OPT projections show that to reach 53 million in 2050 would now require more radical policies:

A. (Projection 05/A/03) 53 million in 2050 could be achieved with constant fertility (a TFR of 1.74 in most years to 2050) and net emigration of 82,000 a year. This would require much stricter immigration controls or a willingness by other countries to accept more emigrants from the UK.

B. (Projection 05/B/03): 53 million in 2050 could be achieved by reducing fertility and introducing zero net effect migration, but fertility would need to be reduced from a TFR of 1.74 to 1.55. OPT does not recommend coercion on fertility and a natural reduction to this level is unlikely.

C. (Projection 05/C/03): 53 million in 2050 could be achieved with a sharper reduction in fertility and constant migration. The TFR would need to be reduced to 1.12 and net inward migration would continue at 130,000 a year. OPT does not recommend coercion on fertility and a natural TFR reduction to 1.12 is very unlikely.

OPT's recommended population policy remains a reduction in unintended pregnancies, particularly among teenagers, combined with zero net effect* (demographically or numerically balanced) migration to achieve an initial population target of 53 million.

Because fertility has risen and is expected to rise further, a reduction in unintended pregnancies would not lead to a reduction in TFR to the 1.64 used in its 02/A/00 Policy Projection. OPT therefore hopes the government will consider a policy based on OPT Projection 05/A/03. Under this scenario, the total dependency ratio in mid-2050 would be 79.6 tto 100 (52.95 million).

*Zero net effect migration means a level of migration and settlement that does not incur population growth. Flows in and out of the UK could be small or large, but would need to be broadly numerically and demographically balanced.

OFFICIAL (GOVERNMENT ACTUARY'S) POPULATION PROJECTIONS AND DEPENDENCY RATIOS

Contrary to popular belief, delaying population stabilisation does not significantly improve demographic dependency ratios (here the ratio of the total of children under 16 and people of pension age to those of working age) in the long term. Improvement in an economic dependency ratio (e.g. the ratio of the economically inactive to those employed) can be achieved by other means. The information below is taken from the latest official population projections published by the Government Actuary's Department.

For more information, see the 2050 Summary from the Government Actuary's Department, or the detailed 2003-based projections on the GAD website (link below).

GAD's Principal 2003-based population projection assumes a constant TFR of 1.74 (most years to 2050) and constant net inward migration of 130,000 a year. The total dependency ratio is 61.7 to 100 (617 dependants to 1,000 people of working age) in mid-2003 and rises to 718 (71.8 to 100) in mid- 2050 (total population 66.78 million).

GAD's Natural Change Only 2003-based population projection assumes a constant TFR of 1.74 and zero (net effect) migration. The total dependency ratio would be 78.5 to 100 in mid-2050 (total population 56.98 million).

GAD's High Migration 2003-based population projection assumes a constant TFR of 1.74 and constant net inward migration of 190,000 a year. The total dependency ratio would be 70.2 to 100 in mid-2050 (total population 70.70 million).

GAD's High Fertility 2003-based population projection assumes a TFR of 1.74 to 1.94 and constant net inward migration of 130,000 a year. The total dependency ratio would be 73.1 to 100 in mid-2050 (total population 71.18 million).

NOTES: SOURCES

All OPT projections referred to, plus the GAD 2050 population figures, are available from the OPT website at:
OPT Population Projections

Official government projections are available from the official GAD website at:
Government Actuary's Department

For UK population figures see OPT UK Population 1750-2004

ENQUIRIES:

Rosamund McDougall, Co-chair, Optimum Population Trust - Tel: 07976-370 221

OPT is an environmental research and campaign organisation concerned with the environmental effects of UK and global population growth. It is independent of any commercial or political interests.