NEWS RELEASE

WORLD NEEDS “POPULATION KYOTO”

The world needs an international protocol on population - a “population Kyoto” - to minimise the impact of rising human numbers on the planet, the Optimum Population Trust said today (Tues Feb 14).

Studies by the trust suggest that the emphasis on climate change as the main environmental threat facing the Earth ignores the equally huge problem posed by the projected 40 per cent rise in human population levels over the next four decades. Even in the UK, where many politicians have been arguing we need more young workers and babies to counter the prospects of demographic “decline”, the population is projected to rise by 17 per cent, or 10.5 million, by 2074.

“You cannot separate climate change from climate changers,” said David Nicholson-Lord, OPT’s research associate. “A 17 per cent rise in the UK’s population is tantamount, all other things being equal, to an automatic 17 per cent rise in our carbon dioxide emissions, pushing us even further off target in our attempts to slow or halt global warming. The unfortunate reality is that 10.5 million more people in the UK mean 10.5 million more agents of climate change.”

The case for a stable or declining population in the UK, instead of the 17 per cent increase projected, will be debated in London tomorrow (Wednesday, February 15) in front of an audience of politicians, academics, environmentalists and City analysts. The event, part of the Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation’s Round Table series, will be one of the few occasions population has been debated in public in recent years.

Speakers include Peter Lilley MP, former Trade and Industry Secretary and chair of the Conservative Party’s new globalisation and global poverty policy group, and David Coleman, professor of demography at Oxford University, a UN consultant, former special adviser to the UK Government and author of over 90 papers and eight books on population and immigration issues. The debate is sponsored by the Optimum Population Trust and the New Economics Foundation think-tank.

More than 12 “extra” Earths would be needed if the world’s current population consumed fossil fuels at the rate the United States is now doing, OPT calculations suggest. If the world limited itself to current western European fossil fuel consumption rates, it would take an additional four planets to absorb the resulting greenhouse gas emissions. However, even if the current world population stopped using fossil fuels and lived a western European lifestyle based entirely on renewable energy, it would still need, in total, 2.8 Earths - nearly two more planets - to support it, according to ecological footprinting calculations.

To live within the carrying capacity of one Earth, population would thus need to be reduced by a factor of 2.8. In 2001, the year on which the calculations are based, a “sustainable” world population would on this basis have been 2.2 billion – as opposed to the actual figure, 6.2 billion. Currently the world’s population is 6.5 billion but is forecast to grow to 9.1 billion by 2050 (UN).

“These figures show that we simply cannot ignore human numbers if we want to live in balance with the planet and eliminate man-made climate change,” said David. Nicholson-Lord, one of the Round Table speakers. “Green technology by itself is not enough. Yet population has become the elephant in the cupboard – even environmental groups no longer dare mention it for fear of offending somebody.”

OPT is calling for an international protocol on population to implement a sustainable population policy for the Earth. A “population Kyoto” would set a framework in which the world could aim at population stabilisation and reduction targets, to be achieved through universally and freely available family planning, the encouragement of small families and balanced migration. On the basis of ecological footprinting research, it believes sustainable population targets would be 20-29 million for the UK.

Rosamund McDougall, of the OPT’s advisory council, who is speaking at tomorrow’s event, said: “If action is taken now, globally and by nation states, to encourage gradual population decrease by non-coercive means, the urgent measures needed to protect our environmental fundamentals have some hope of success. Globally, we need the equivalent of a Kyoto protocol on population numbers. Nationally, the UK needs to take a lead urgently and formulate its own environmentally sustainable population policy, which we suggest should start with stabilisation and gradual decrease of about a quarter of a percent a year.”

One area where population growth in the UK is causing environmental strains is water. Rosamund McDougall said the relationship between water use and population numbers was “not a very elastic one. With numbers [in the UK] now growing by more than 300,000 a year…how much water will be available for water-using industry and agriculture? Will our grandchildren be allowed only an annual bath? A decrease in population, at a given level of water supply, would mean more water for each inhabitant of the UK. It would also mean more countryside, more space, more tranquillity, more available housing and fewer greenhouse gas emissions – in other words, a better quality of life for everybody.”

Population Facts

* The UK’s population is projected to rise from over 60 million to nearly 71 million by 2074. This is equivalent to one-and-a half cities the size of London or 57 Lutons (population 184,000).

*The UK is more densely populated than China. Three quarters of us believe it is overcrowded (YouGov).

*The UK’s ”ecological deficit” – the amount by which its global ecological footprint exceeds its own biologically productive capacity - is roughly 47 million hectares. This is roughly twice its land area (24 million hectares) and nearly three times its area of biologically productive land (18 million hectares). (Living Planet Report, 2004, WWF/UNEP). In effect, we need between three and four UKs (3.6) to support its present population: most of the land used to feed and service the UK lies outside it.

* Projections commissioned by the OPT from the Government Actuary’s department based on 2003 figures suggest that, with balanced migration and a fertility rate of 1.55 children per woman, the UK could lower its population to 53 million people by 2050 – 15-16 million, or over two Londons, fewer than projected. (The fertility rate is currently over 1.7).

*Each Briton born today will “consume” on average at least 2,780 tonnes of raw materials and natural resources in their lifetime. In weight terms, this is equivalent to over 360 red London (Routemaster) buses, around 1,080 sports utility vehicles (Range Rovers) or more than 278,000 mountain bikes. The figure excludes water. (Source: ONS, Environmental Acounts. The total material requirement of the UK economy was 2,112 million tonnes in 2004. UK life expectancy at birth is 79. A Routemaster bus weighs 7.6 tonnes, a Range Rover 2.57 tonnes, a mountain bike 10 kilograms).

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION:

Telephone 07976-370 221 or see www.optimumpopulation.org. Or contact the following:

Rosamund McDougall, OPT advisory council: 07799 384083 (mobile)

David Nicholson-Lord, OPT research associate: 020 8693 5789

Andrew Ferguson , OPT research co-ordinator: 01491 574 850

Prof John Guillebaud, OPT co-chair: 01865 863 982 or 07779 180188 (mobile)

Val Stevens, OPT co-chair: 01509 843109