NEWS RELEASE

SMALL FAMILIES PRODUCE BIG GREEN GAINS – OPT STUDY

An area of land larger than Wales could be released for “re-greening” in the UK if couples limited their family size to no more than two children, according to a new study from the Optimum Population Trust.

Currently 26 per cent of women in the UK are expected to have more than two children. If they decided to “stop at two”, the effect would be to reduce long-term average family size from 1.84 to 1.42 children and to cut the UK’s forecast population in 2050 by an estimated seven million – almost the population size of London.

In combination with a policy of balanced or “zero net” migration, in which the numbers of immigrants matches the number of emigrants, this would reduce the projected population of 77 million people in 2050* by an estimated 21-23 million, shrinking it to 54-56 million – some 6 million fewer people than today and enough to take an area bigger than Wales out of development and return it to nature or food production.

In a report** to mark the launch of a Stop At Two pledge on its website today, OPT points out that the UK is one of the most densely populated countries in the world. The green gains from lower population and living densities would range from climate change emission reductions to increased biodiversity and greater self-sufficiency in food and energy.

“If 55 million people (22 million fewer than expected) could be housed and supported by infrastructure at the same average density as the current 61 million, 23,800 km2 of land would be released for re-greening, to produce food and energy resources for its human inhabitants and revitalise other stressed species – a green land gain larger than Wales,” it says.

OPT’s Stop at Two pledge*** is aimed at encouraging couples to consider limiting their family size to reduce population pressures on the world environment. It follows the launch of OPT’s Stop at Two campaign petition on World Population Day (July 11) 2006 and is OPT’s contribution to the current Global Population Speak Out month (February 2009), a worldwide campaign**** to focus attention on the “taboo” issue of population growth.

If women worldwide decided to have half a child fewer, statistically, than currently forecast, world population would be 1.4 billion less in 2050 – 7.8 billion instead of 9.2 billion.

Rosamund McDougall, OPT policy director, said: “Our calculations demonstrate the enormous environmental benefit, globally and nationally, of even small reductions in family size. In the UK, they show that although balanced migration flows make the biggest difference to the country’s future population levels, smaller families can also play a hugely significant role. The more couples decide to have just one or two children, or even remain childless, the more they can relieve pressures on rapidly deteriorating ecosystems and alleviate demand for dwindling energy and food resources.”

She added: “There is a widespread and persistent misunderstanding about what is meant by calls to stop at two. Coercion is simply not on the agenda. No sensible person living in a free society - and certainly no one from OPT - believes there should be any interference from Governments in the right of parents to choose the number of children they have. All we are asking is that people take the planet into consideration when they make that choice. Like our patron, Jonathon Porritt*****, OPT believes that is the way responsible individuals should act given the seriousness of the threats facing the global environment.

“As for OPT’s Stop at Two pledge, it is, of course, completely voluntary and can be signed by anyone, anywhere, worldwide.”

NOTES:

*Office for National Statistics projections, 2007.

**The briefing, Stopping at Two: The green gains from smaller families , can be viewed on the Briefings and Submissions page.

***See http://www.optimumpopulation.org/stopattwo.html

****See http://gpso.wordpress.com

*****Jonathon Porritt, OPT patron and chair of the UK Sustainable Development Commission, which advises the Government on green issues, said in an interview with The Sunday Times earlier this month: “I am unapologetic about asking people to connect up their own responsibility for their total environmental footprint and how they decide to procreate and how many children they think are appropriate…I think we will work our way towards a position that says that having more than two children is irresponsible.” (Two children should be limit, says green guru, February 1 2009).