PRESS RELEASE

IS THE UK OVER-POPULATED?

The population challenges facing the UK will receive a rare public airing next week (Wednesday, February 15) in front of an audience of politicians, academics, environmentalists and City analysts.

The case for a stable or declining population – instead of the 17 per cent increase envisaged in the last set of Government projections– will be examined by speakers including Peter Lilley MP, former Trade and Industry Secretary and chair of the Conservative Party’s new globalisation and global poverty policy group, and David Coleman, professor of demography at Oxford University, a UN consultant, former special adviser to the UK Government and author of over 90 papers and eight books on population and immigration issues.

The debate, sponsored by the Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation, the Optimum Population Trust and the New Economics Foundation think-tank, will take place in the City as part of the CSFI’s Round Table series.

It will question the conventional view – endorsed by the Government - that the UK’s main demographic problem is the ageing of its population and the lack of young people to finance its pensions and welfare systems. Speakers from OPT and NEF will argue that the real crisis is the damage to quality of life and the environment likely to result from the projected increase of 10.5 million in the UK’s population by the year 2074. This will take the UK population from 60 to nearly 71 million and is equivalent to nearly one-and-a half cities the size of London or 57 Lutons (population 184,000).

Population growth has become the issue that “dare not speak its name” – next week’s event represents one of the few occasions it has been debated in public in recent years. Although it was seen as one of the main ingredients of environmental crisis in the 1960s and 1970s, pressure groups and politicians are now reluctant to mention it for fear of causing offence. Environmental groups claim that reducing the impact of human consumption – through green technologies, for example – is more important than reducing human numbers

"We're moving into an era of eco-rationing," said Rosamund McDougall, of the OPT’s Advisory Council, who will be speaking at next week’s debate. "It's incomprehensible that so few politicians dare suggest that smaller populations would be a good thing. Less is more - a smaller population would help to relieve severe environmental stress and bring many other benefits. We hope that events like this will get more of us talking about the issue."

David Nicholson-Lord, deputy chair of NEF and research associate with OPT, who will also be speaking at the event, said: “Environmental groups are kidding themselves if they think renewable technology and greener lifestyles can magic away the sheer impact of human numbers. The UK is already living far beyond its means environmentally and the projected population increase over the next half-century will make that much worse. Wind energy may be much preferable to nuclear in environmental and social terms but it still has a significant impact. And new houses on greenfield sites are still houses – whether they are ‘zero-emission’ houses or not.”

Prof. Coleman is expected to argue that further population growth will not be beneficial, especially on the scale currently projected, and that a stabilisation of population size should be welcome. Although little is known about the consequences of population decline in modern societies, there may be advantages in eventually reaching a smaller population size, as long as any decline is gradual and finite. His view is that people in the UK should be given the facts about population, economy and the environment so that they can take an informed view.

The OPT campaigns for a population policy for the UK. On the basis of ecological footprinting research, it believes sustainable population targets would be 20-29 million for the UK and 2-3 billion, less than half present numbers, for the world as a whole.

Population Facts

*The UK is more densely populated than China. Three quarters of us believe it is overcrowded (YouGov).

* If the current world population stopped using fossil fuels and lived a western European lifestyle based entirely on renewable energy, it would still need, in total, 2.8 Earths - nearly two more planets - to support it, according to ecological footprinting calculations. The world’s population is currently 6.5 billion but is forecast to grow to 9.1 billion by 2050 (UN).

*Each Briton born today will “consume” on average at least 2,780 tonnes of raw materials and natural resources in their lifetime. In weight terms, this is equivalent to over 360 red London (Routemaster) buses, around 1,080 sports utility vehicles (Range Rovers) or more than 278,000 mountain bikes. The figure excludes water. (Source: ONS, Environmental Acounts. The total material requirement of the UK economy was 2,112 million tonnes in 2004. UK life expectancy at birth is 79. A Routemaster bus weighs 7.6 tonnes, a Range Rover 2.57 tonnes, a mountain bike 10 kilograms).

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION:

Telephone 07976-370 221 or see www.optimumpopulation.org. Or contact the following:

Rosamund McDougall, OPT advisory council: 07799 384083 (mobile)

David Nicholson-Lord, OPT research associate: 020 8693 5789

Prof John Guillebaud, OPT co-chair: 01865 863 982 or 07779 180188 (mobile)

Val Stevens, OPT co-chair: 01509 843109