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Graphics

Population and greenhouse gas emissions 1970-2010

UNFCCC COP 15 Submission from Sustainable Population Australia, May 2009. Questions about this graph should be emailed to SPA

The Optimum Population Trust conducts research on the relationship between ecology, the environment and human population carrying capacity, for Earth as a whole and for the UK. OPT also carries out research on the economic, energy and other aspects of sustainable population numbers and change. For other website research papers, briefings and submissions, see the menu on our home page.

How Many People?     Report by Dr Martin Desvaux CPhys, published in February 2008.

Summary                

Youthquake                  Report by Professor John Guillebaud FRCSEd, published in July 2007.

!!!BANG by Yog the Quark, aka Siegfried Eckleben, privately printed (ISBN 978-1-4303-0763-1) in 2003, 3rd edition 2007, £9.50 from Amazon. Eckleben's subtitle, A cv.of the universe from the Big Bang to the most intelligent form of life on planet earth, and some of its problems, instantly conveys the vast scope of an ambitious 236-page paperback which leaves few stones unturned and provides a mass of information. Told in the first person, Yog is a quark, the smallest known particle of matter which, together with the electron, forms everything in the universe. Emerging from the Big Bang, yog relates his long journey as he forms part of a more and more complex molecule which itself becomes part of the human race on Earth. Sometimes quirky in style, Eckleben manages to convey a credible scientific picture of physical and biological evolution and then muses about some of the problems man has given himself, including massive over-population of a relatively small planet. For me, the book is a worthwhile read for the first section alone, filling in many of the gaps in my rather shaky knowledge of the physical universe since it was created. In addition, we have the benefit of a wide and deep thinker confronting the human population issue. Perhaps he could now turn even more of his creative energy in that direction? Eric Rimmer, Sept 2007.

The Long Emergency, by James Howard Kunstler, Atlantic Paperback, September 2005, £12.99. Kunstler's sub-title Surviving the converging catastrophes of the 21st century aptly describes a constructive approach to a fast accelerating problem. Start at any point on his triangle Population, Oil and Global Warming, and it becomes obvious that each feeds into each other - and that together they form a challenge unique in mankind's history. After his initial chapter Sleepwalking into the future, Kunstler focuses on our fast disappearing oil and gas supplies, and makes it clear that we are entirely relying on a once-and-for-all bounty of cheap and abundant energy which has taken millions of years to accumulate and has its end clearly in sight. With oil and gas supplies expected to peak in about 10 years, it will become increasingly difficult and expensive to extract what is left, leading to competition and conflict to secure supplies, and a world economy in which it would be impossible to feed the world's current 6.5 billion people at any survival level, let alone another 2.5 billion due by 2050. Meanwhile, global warming will take its toll, and without oil each nation will be forced back to a lifestyle reminiscent of the early 20th century. Eric Rimmer, Oct 2005.

The Rapid Growth of Human Populations 1750 - 2000, by Dr William Stanton, Multi-Science Publishing, September 2003, ISBN 0 906 522 218, 230pp, £25. Dr William Stanton's recently published book bears comparison with Clive Ponting's masterly book A Green History of the World. The lens through which both books look at history is one which brings out the impact of humans on the environment and vice versa. This scholarly book is of outstanding quality - as well as an providing excellent analysis of the issues, Stanton has compiled demographic histories of all the worldıs countries, in the form of graphs, for the last 250 years. For the first time the reader is confronted with the overwhelming evidence of massive worldwide population growth, in a plain pictorial form that cannot be misunderstood. Order direct from Multi-Science Publishing

The Imaginary Time Bomb: Why an Ageing Population is not a Social Problem, I B Tauris, 2002, ISBN 1860647782, 239pp, Paperback £12.99. The author argues that the modern world's growing preoccupation with ageing has little to do with demography but rather that it is used to justify further reductions in the role of government in the economy and the curbing of the welfare state. Thus he demolishes a succession of myths. Order direct from I B Tauris

The OPT Journal is edited by Andrew Ferguson and published twice a year, in April and October. Most articles in the OPT Journal are concerned with the development of ecological footprinting, which is one of the techniques used to calculate sustainable population estimates. Contributions, informed critical comment and analysis are welcome - please e-mail us, giving your full contact details.